Now Serving Freshly Baked Portfolios

Update

I can’t claim to be much of a cook, and baking is one of those skills that even accomplished cooks can struggle with.  But despite the heat, the effort, and the inevitable mess there’s something truly special about the smell of a freshly baked dessert as it first comes out of the oven.  At that point the stress and frustration just melts away and it all seems worth it.

It took a lot of time and effort, but the Portfolios and Assets pages are now all fully updated.  Get them while they’re still hot!

Here’s a quick rundown of what you can expect to see:

 

Assets

  • As discussed earlier, TIPS have been removed while I research better historical data.
  • All source data information has been fully updated with the improved Simba sources.
  • Any replacement assets have detailed explanations for why I chose what I did and what type of effect it has on the calculations.
  • The About the Assets page has been updated to explain the new content in more detail, so be sure to give it a read.

 

Portfolios

  • All charts have been updated with new, more, and better data.
  • I’ve added a Retirement Spending chart to each portfolio.  I chose to show VPW by default as that’s a very popular alternative to the Constant Dollar method, but obviously you can try different methods in the calculators.
  • The Swensen and Merriman portfolios have been updated to reallocate the prescribed TIPS percentages into intermediate treasuries.  For those wondering, I double checked on the old calculators and this substitution alone had minimal effect on the long-term numbers.
  • Unfortunately, I decided that since 50% of the Swedroe Min Fat Tails portfolio is allocated to assets I don’t have enough good data for (TIPS and EM), it doesn’t make sense to represent it on the site in that form.  However, I’m reading up on modern iterations by Mr. Swedroe and may reintroduce a different version in the future.

 

Of course, whenever you update so much data it is possible that some of your favorite portfolios may look a little different in the new light.  For example, at first blush the Merriman Ultimate seems to have been knocked down a peg now that questionable older international data has been culled out of the sources.  Don’t get me wrong — it’s still a very interesting option and the estimated earlier data does allow for some leeway in the numbers — but the long-term returns are now back in line with many of the other portfolios.  So be sure to set aside your previous assumptions and investigate each portfolio with an eye to learn something new.

While you’re browsing all of the new content, please do me a favor and be on the lookout for errors.  With so many pages updated at once, it’s almost certain that I goofed up somewhere.  If you do spot something suspicious, let me know.

Happy portfolio hunting!