No matter if it’s a fun new gadget or just some well-earned peace and quiet, I hope everyone received all they wanted for Christmas! And no, I haven’t forgotten about you. Now that we’re slowly easing back into normal routines, I have one more last-minute gift to round out the holiday.
The 2023 portfolio data has arrived!
Here’s a quick summary of everything you can expect to find.
A Work in Progress
As is standard for data updates on Portfolio Charts, note that the final year-end returns numbers are only preliminary. I collect data from many sources around the world, and not every source is equally prompt in offering new numbers. For reference, the vast majority of asset data references ETFs that update immediately. But a few things like inflation, T-Bills, and a handful of the non-US 10-year bond data sources only have data through November.
Most of those November numbers should be close enough to the December variety to not be worth holding anything back, so I always try to publish things as quickly as possible. Just know that things my change a little as new information trickles in over the next month or so.
2023 Portfolio Returns
While markets were a bit of a roller coaster throughout the year and inflation still leaves a lot to be desired, 2023 ended with a surge that ensured pretty much any portfolio ended with a nice return. For reference, here’s what the spread of inflation-adjusted 2023 returns looks like using the newest Returns Quilt.
Coming in on top was the Total Stock Market portfolio, as US stocks did particularly well in 2023 with a 22% real return. Rounding out the bottom was the Larry Portfolio, likely due to a high percentage of bonds that struggled as interest rates rose. But even in a tight year for bonds the portfolio still returned 4% real, so I imagine most Larry investors are doing fine.
And speaking of bonds, note that I also included a portfolio of 100% T-Bills in the list. Even accounting for inflation, cash is finally doing its thing again! In fact 2023 was a good example of why diversifying the maturity of your bonds can be a useful thing. Not all bonds are equally harmed by rising interest rates. While long term bonds took a hit (they finished the year with a real return of about zero), those with short maturities benefited quite a bit from those new higher rates.
So within that spectrum between 100% cash and 100% stocks, every blended portfolio ended up in a good spot in 2023. Here’s hoping that trend continues into 2024.
Various Updates
On top of the normal data updates, I also took the opportunity to make a few other small changes.
Updated index funds
The ETF list in the Fund Finder has been updated with new expense ratios. Several providers like SPDR and UBS lowered their expenses (yay!), while a few others like iShares and Vanguard Canada raised their expenses (boo!). European investors may also notice fewer Lyxor funds, as a recent merger with Amundi changed the number of funds they continue to offer.
Withdrawal rates methodology tweak
I noticed some strange behavior in the Withdrawal Rates chart where the new data had an unusually large effect on the projected SWRs in a handful of portfolios. Upon further examination, I found that it was caused by a quirk in my custom projection method where it is highly sensitive to the first handful of years. Think of it as trying to predict the outcome of an election by only counting the first few ballots. It just isn’t stable or reliable, as there’s a certain minimum amount of data required to do the job.
For now, I set a new filter that requires at least 5 years of data to let things settle before making any projections. But I’ll continue to study my methodology and look for ways to improve the system to be as useful as possible without confusing people with datapoints prone to whiplash.
Just in case you’re wondering if there’s anything to be worried about with the anomalous projections, check out the Retirement Spending chart which shows the account values of every retiree since 1970. All of that short-term data is still there, and you can visually track it for yourself without any automated projection required.
Bug fixes
It’s always humbling when I update things and notice small bugs that have been out there for a while. Luckily there were no calculation issues at all, but I was able to fix a few visual interface things that previously slipped through the cracks.
If you ever see something that looks strange, feel free to let me know no matter how small it is. I always appreciate your feedback.
Resolve to Support Good Data
For those not familiar with how Portfolio Charts works, it’s a personal project by one individual investor — me. On top of writing articles for the blog and creating the spreadsheets that power the site, I painstakingly collect all of the data and manually update every tool each year to keep everything running and relevant. I do it because I genuinely enjoy it, and I share it all for free because I believe it is important. But as you can imagine, it does require a lot of time and effort that could be otherwise spent on far more profitable endeavors.
As you can see from the intentionally clean website with no ads, monetization is not my top priority. But I figured the new data drop is a reasonable time to put myself out there and remind happy investors about how they can pitch in.
So as you browse the additional data for new investing ideas, think about how much you value all of the free tools. And if you’re able, please consider making a New Year’s resolution to support Portfolio Charts. From becoming a member to buying some gear or making a small donation, the Patrons page offers multiple ways to help.
I truly appreciate you! And I’m confident that every visitor who benefits from the information that your generosity makes possible will say the same.
Let’s Make 2024 Even Better
With that small pitch out of the way, I’ll save a long post for another day and leave time for everyone to explore the data for themselves. So wrap up that last work email, grab a warm cup of coffee, and fire up the Portfolios and Charts to see what you can find. Now that the new numbers are finally covered, I’ll be doing the same!
While the New Year is my busiest season with all of the tedious updates, I honestly love this time of year because of the perpetual sense of new insights and opportunities. The best thing about historical data is using it to wisely plan for a better future. Now that there’s more than ever, don’t let it go to waste!
Make 2024 the year you truly take charge of your portfolio, and one day you’ll look back and realize that this is the moment you started on a steady path towards your exciting financial goals. You’ve got this.
Happy New Year!
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