Won’t the recommended portfolios change if you study different timeframes?
The Portfolio Finder looks at every possible start date to find the most consistent portfolios that met your long-term investing needs even in their worst possible times. So, like withdrawal rates, the reported numbers are completely independent of start date. /// More Info ///
Still, I absolutely recommend studying all portfolios from a broader perspective that accounts for even more timeframes and other important factors. The Heat Map and Portfolio Growth calculators are particularly helpful for visualizing returns uncertainty and identifying historical trends. Consider the Portfolio Finder a starting point in your research, not the final stop.
Why did you choose 15-year periods?
Let’s look at a Heat Map for reference. I’ve outlined the returns that the Portfolio Finder uses.
15 years is long enough to bypass any short-term market volatility that would make any volatile portfolio look bad. But it’s also short enough to get 30 periods to study that span the high inflation 70’s, the roaring 80’s and 90’s, and the tumultuous run starting in the early 2000’s. The variety of economic environments is critical to the analysis.
In addition, for those interested in finding a retirement portfolio Michael Kitces has shown that 15-year real returns are also important metrics for long-term portfolio survivability.
But perhaps most importantly — despite the protests of the most stoic investors, 15 years is a really long time to wait to finally receive your expected average return. If it hasn’t manifested by then, the vast majority of people will have already changed course. So from a practical perspective rather than a theoretical one, it also makes pretty good sense.
Why report back the worst return? Why not the median or average?
By selecting the single worst return over that range, it’s virtually impossible for any asset to gain an unfair advantage. Maybe gold was incredible starting in the 70’s, but the 90’s were a bloodbath. Stocks may look fantastic starting in 1985, but the 2000’s were pretty brutal. Averages of averages can still be quite deceptive depending on the data distribution, but single worst averages (like single worst years) cut through the uncertainty and get to the core of what’s truly sufficient to meet your needs in the most consistent way possible.
Why do you show the top-10 portfolios? Why not just invest in the best?
Smart long-term investing is about so much more than performance chasing. The single best portfolio you see there today will probably not be the best the next year. Also, the single best portfolio may include assets you are not personally comfortable investing in. Different people require different portfolios, and I prefer to present the full cloud of options so that each person can come to their own conclusions about what is “best”.
How can I see more portfolios beyond the top-10?
Try requiring some of the assets that are showing up on the list, and the calculator will narrow down the possible options and update the list accordingly. There are more than 83,000 possible combinations of assets, and the Portfolio Finder will help you always find the top options for your needs.
How can I find the portfolio for a specific dot on the chart?
Each dot corresponds to a specific portfolio. So to identify a dot, start requiring assets. If you add a requirement and the dot stays green, you’re on the right track. Identify enough required assets, and the list will very quickly narrow down.
Why can’t I find a specific portfolio anywhere on the scatter chart?
For consistency, the scatter chart has been limited to only show portfolios with a minimum 15-year real CAGR of zero. However, certain asset combinations have lost money for longer than 15 years. These portfolios will not show up on the scatter chart but can still find their way on the top-10 list (although making it there with a long-term loss takes serious effort).