Regardless of whether you watch every event or simply browse social media for highlights, I think we can all agree that the Olympics are a great spectacle. From athletic feats that boggle the mind to tears of both joy and agony, the raw passion, dedication, and ultimate triumph is hard to top in terms of pure inspiration.

Sprinkled among the adrenaline-filled moments are a few images that capture the public consciousness for entirely different reasons. For example, the standout star of this Olympic cycle may not be an elite gymnast, swimmer, or track and field hero but a 51-year old Turkish shooter named Yusuf Dikec. Even if you don’t recognize the name, you know the picture.

Beyond wining a silver medal while looking like a badass middle-aged assassin from a Bourne movie, the thing that really stood out to viewers was his unassuming technique. In a sport where crazy gadgets and contorted postures are commonplace, Dikec just casually walked up, put his hand in his pocket, and mowed down targets.

Naturally, the stark difference in approach sparked countless memes. They’re all over social media, but here’s one of my own creation to set the tone.

Differences in technique are not new, but in the Olympics they’re usually tightly controlled to never match up directly. For example, you have distinct competitions for various swim strokes and martial arts styles. But occasionally you get a glimpse of very different approaches in the same event, like when Dick Fosbury revolutionized the high jump with his signature Fosbury Flop that quickly became the standard.

I don’t see the entire sport of pistol shooting rushing to Yusuf Dikec’s casual style any time soon, but honestly I think that’s part of the fun. There’s more than one way to successfully hit a target, and we all have to find the one that works for us.

As you can see in the meme, that entertaining matchup of shooting styles reminded me of portfolio approaches. So following in the Olympic spirit, I decided to fire up my spreadsheets and hold a competition of sorts to see how each portfolio ranks in one of 8 different events.

If you’ve ever wondered which combination of country and portfolio sported the highest average return or lowest drawdown, I’ve got the data to back it up. And by studying the standings, I think we can learn a lot not only about when portfolio approaches have the greatest benefits but also about how our own home country bias may influence our perspectives.

Competition Overview

---

To set up the competition, I turned to the Portfolio Matrix. It tracks the stats (since 1970) for 19 different portfolio options in 12 different countries across 8 different metrics. The 8 metrics are carefully selected to track four “offensive” numbers and four “defensive” numbers in order to give portfolios with different purposes opportunities to shine.

Think of each metric as an event, the countries as individual competitors, and the portfolios as unique styles to choose from. Like a person representing France using the Ivy portfolio in the Safe Withdrawal Rate event.

Take the Average Return event as one example. I calculated the average real return since 1970 for each portfolio in every country, using standardized portfolio definitions across markets and adjusting for local inflation and exchange rates. Then I found the top-3 combinations that generated the highest average returns to determine which country + portfolio pairing got a medal.

So without further ado, let’s light the torch for the Portfolio Olympics and see what we can learn from the competition for investing gold.

The Results

---

Average Return

The inflation-adjusted average return since 1970.

While the Total Stock Market performing so well on average isn’t too surprising, the lack of any US results on the podium may shock a few people. The US may be famous for its outsized stock gains over the years, but countries like Sweden have actually done even better after accounting for inflation. While I don’t believe Sweden will always come out on top, keep the performance in mind when you get a little too comfortable with the “special” characteristics of your own home market.

---

Baseline Long Term Return

A conservative long-term compound return excluding the worst outliers.

(15th percentile 15-year real CAGR)

There’s a decent amount of country variety in the rankings, but the notable thing here is how one portfolio style stands out. Baseline long term returns look at some of the worst case scenarios on record. By consistently topping the charts in each country, the Weird Portfolio demonstrates its proficiency at maximizing the baseline outcomes no matter where you live.

---

Baseline Short Term Return

A conservative short-term compound return excluding the worst outliers.

(15th percentile 3-year real CAGR)

We finally have a few US winners here in the baseline short term return category. If you’re looking for safe growth for the next 3 years, prioritizing relatively stable countries does make sense. But the more interesting thing to me is the three different portfolios that all lean towards risk parity concepts that balance risky assets rather than leaning into low-volatility options. Cash is always a safe choice for money you know you need soon, but these portfolios are worth studying for good options with more potential upside.

---

Safe Withdrawal Rate

The withdrawal rate that never ran out of money in any 30-year retirement

(Percentage of the initial portfolio. Spending is adjusted by inflation every year.)

I can honestly say that I was shocked to see Italy in the top spot in this category, as it’s generally known as one of the more volatile markets in developed Europe which usually doesn’t help withdrawal rates. But perhaps that speaks more about the resilience of the Weird Portfolio that again swept the podium. It has performed quite well not only in long term growth but also in long term withdrawals in many different locations.

---

Standard Deviation

The statistical uncertainty of the average real return.

(Lower is better)

Shifting to the first of the 4 defensive events, we can start to see a shakeup in the winners. Canada took home the top two spots thanks to relatively stable markets, while the two most famous defensive portfolio options were the best tools for the job. By the way, for those who are wary of things like long term bonds and gold because of how volatile they can be, think about how they are both major components in the top-3 examples with the LOWEST standard deviation. Portfolio theory is interesting like that.

---

Ulcer Index

A composite measure of drawdown depth, length, and frequency.

(Lower is better)

When it comes to preventing portfolio pain, there’s no obvious pattern to the winning countries. But there’s a clear trend in the portfolio approaches, as the Golden Butterfly is a close cousin to the Permanent Portfolio. That style of balanced asset allocation with stocks, bonds, cash, and gold is the proven ticket to ignoring the financial news and sleeping well no matter where you live.

---

Deepest Drawdown

The deepest compound loss since 1970.

(Using year-end data. Lower is better.)

There’s an obvious pattern developing with the Permanent Portfolio in the defensive categories, as it swept the podium for deepest drawdown. So I’ll take a moment to point out that Harry Browne was an American who nonetheless wanted something that truly translated to other economies as well. With no international diversification other than gold, he created a portfolio equally safe from drawdowns using only the local assets in each country. That’s truly remarkable when you think about it.

---

Start Date Sensitivity

A measure of the degree of potential start date bias.

(Lower is better. High scores indicate that returns are inconsistent.)

The Permanent Portfolio swept again, even with a few new countries on the podium. Start date sensitivity is a good indicator of consistent portfolio growth, and it appears to be less about living in a lucky high-growth country and more about investing in a portfolio that does well in all economic environments.

Lessons From the Victors

---

While the individual results may be interesting, it’s also important to not to get lost in the weeds. I always like to step back and look at the big picture, and let’s start by studying the total medal count by country.

Total Medals by Country

Home Country	Total Medals
United States	5
Sweden	4
United Kingdom	4
Canada	3
France	3
Italy	2
Netherlands	2
Switzerland	1

The United States did indeed bring home the most medals, but I bet you may be surprised at how even the count is overall. The US only captured 5 of the 24 possible medals, so clearly there’s a lot of value in removing the American data blinders and seeking out international investing knowledge as well.

On the other side, I think it’s useful to recognize the four countries that never medaled: Australia, Germany, Japan, and Spain. Japan and Spain make sense, as they have well-known histories that make them common examples of worst cases. But Germany? My data doesn’t account for the fallout from WWII, and Germany is largely considered the powerhouse economy in Europe! Yeah, that surprised me, too. Again — never get cocky.

On the portfolio side, there are four standouts that I’d like to point out:

Total Stock Market Portfolio

The Total Stock Market portfolio won gold and silver in the very first average return category and then vanished in every other event. Think of it like an Olympics specialist — a sprinter who only does the 100m or “Pommel Horse Guy” Stephen Nedoroscik who just helped Team USA win in the team event. There’s nothing wrong with that at all, and it has its place for certain investing needs. But if you’re looking for an all-around performer, you need to think beyond the average return.

Weird Portfolio

The surprising style standout in the offensive categories was the Weird Portfolio with 7 total medals. Most of the offensive metrics favor portfolios that not only have high returns but also achieve them consistently, which is an important characteristic that I think deserves far more attention than it usually gets. By focusing on diversification not only with stocks and bonds but also with international, factor-based, and real portfolio assets, the Weird Portfolio does a great job of building multiple paths to growth.

Permanent Portfolio

The most dominant investing style of all was the Permanent Portfolio, with 10 total medals in the defensive categories representing 6 different countries. I mentioned it earlier, but this is important enough that it bears repeating — the Permanent Portfolio manages to be one of the consistently safest portfolios in many different countries even while exclusively using the local stocks and bonds in each country! It accomplished that based on its underlying theory of balancing the four economic conditions within an economy, and anyone who wants to build a bulletproof portfolio owes it to themselves to learn how it works.

Golden Butterfly

While it won just two medals overall, the Golden Butterfly nonetheless deserves attention for being the only portfolio style to medal in both offensive (Baseline ST) and defensive (Ulcer Index) categories. That actually makes perfect sense when you study the detailed allocation, as it’s a bit of a hybrid between the Weird Portfolio and Permanent Portfolio. So if you’re looking for a well-balanced portfolio to hold for life, the Golden Butterfly is a nice place to start.

How Do You Measure Up?

---

Of course, there’s much more to picking a portfolio suitable for you than just looking at a small handful of winners in a competition like this. But don’t worry — I’ve got you covered.

To study the full rankings for every combination of portfolio and home country, check out the Portfolio Matrix. It has all of the data right there at your fingertips.

The eight metrics are all listed at the top, with every portfolio option stacked in order. You can sort by any metric to see the complete results, select the home country to translate every portfolio to your local inflation and currency, and even rank your own personal asset allocation on the list. You’ll have a tough time finding a similar tool anywhere else, and I’m proud to offer it not just once every four years but every single day.

After all, the Olympics may be an inspiring occasional distraction for casual viewers but investing is a lifetime dedication. And unlike sports, you don’t have to win the genetics lottery to succeed. Start early, put in the work, and persevere. Every paycheck, without fail. And make no mistake — wise investing may indeed be more similar to the marathon than the 100 meter dash. It won’t always be exciting, and it will sometimes feel like a huge grind. But I promise you the rewards will pay off.

So as the Paris Olympics wrap up and you look forward to what comes next, allow me to make a suggestion. Rather than seeking outside inspiration, look inwards. How can you set yourself up financially today to finish the run on your terms with a strong finish and no regrets?

Don’t even think about competitive medals. Think about what victory means to you, and make it happen.

Take that first step today, and one day you’ll stand proud of everything you accomplished.

---

---