Three Risk Parity Strategies Most Immune to Politics

Advanced, Portfolio Talk, Theory

One of my cardinal rules of investing is that politics and money management don’t mix.

It’s not that I don’t have strong personal opinions on certain issues close to my heart just like everyone else. It’s just that I’ve seen far too many otherwise intelligent and level-headed people over the years make insanely shortsighted decisions based on politically-driven exuberance or despair that I’ve learned to separate those base instincts from my financial choices.

As passionate as you may feel today, trading based on elevated political emotions is a choice you’ll most likely live to regret.

That said, I’ve seen a lot of talk in the aftermath of the recent US presidential election about how it may impact the markets in the near future. And frankly, there are some really bad takes out there that may lead normal investors to some very poor ideas from betting heavily on major upswings to selling everything in fear. While I don’t do politics, I still feel the responsibility to offer a constructive perspective helping people navigate their feelings regardless of who they voted for.

To be clear, I have absolutely no idea how markets will react over the coming years and I don’t believe anyone else does either. But I do have a lot of historical data at my disposal and thus a unique opportunity to offer a nonpartisan perspective.

Forget the predictions. Would you like to know which portfolio options are least susceptible to post-election drama?

Stick with me, and you’ll learn how to turn off the cable news and invest with confidence no matter who is in charge.

How to Harness the Flowing Nature of Withdrawal Rate Math

Advanced, Retirement, Updates

Withdrawal rates have always been a passion of mine. Beyond a natural desire to judiciously plan and manage my own early retirement, I’ve also been fascinated with withdrawal rate mechanics from a purely intellectual perspective. Not only is it an interesting topic, but I also like how there’s still lots of room for new development.

So rather than simply defaulting to the same methodologies of the classic Bengen or Trinity papers, I’ve always strived to build upon their solid intellectual foundations while bringing my own unique perspective to the table. By tweaking the default assumptions like the retirement length, home country, or available fund options, I believe people can gain a greater appreciation for investing options far more interesting than the old 4% rule of thumb implies.

That desire for deeper understanding is only matched by my persistence in seeking ways to improve my calculations, and one project I’ve been working on for a while now is the way I calculate safe and perpetual withdrawal rates. I just released an important new update to the Withdrawal Rates tool, and to best explain it I think it might help to step back and start from the beginning.

So if you’ve ever used Portfolio Charts to research your own retirement portfolio or just want to stay up to date with the latest in withdrawal rate calculation techniques, read on.

All About TIPS: Real Returns and Inflated Expectations

Advanced, Theory

Now that inflation is raging at highs not seen in the last 40 years, it’s no wonder that investments which guard against inflation have been experiencing a massive influx of money. With billions of dollars of new inflows every month, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (commonly referred to as TIPS) have quickly become some of the hottest portfolio options for nervous investors. And since questions about TIPS on message boards and in my inbox are apparently directly proportional to those cash flows, this feels like a good time to dig into the topic and separate the measurable truth from what passes as common knowledge.

How do TIPS work? How often have they succeeded in generating a real return above inflation? And are they really better than normal bonds without the inflation protection? Stick with me, and I wager you’ll learn a few things that may surprise you.

Unexpected Returns: Shannon’s Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus

Advanced, Theory

One of the core assumptions baked into all of the Portfolio Charts calculations is the idea that the portfolios are rebalanced once a year back to their target percentages. While that simple process seems rather mundane on the surface, there’s actually a bit of mathematical magic going on that often gets lost in broader portfolio discussions. Yes, maintaining your target asset allocation is an important part of risk management, but it goes so much deeper than that. What if I told you that, like a lonely plant in a barren desert, in the right conditions rebalancing can cause profits to seemingly appear out of nowhere?

That peculiar phenomenon can clearly have a major impact on the way people think about diversification in their investments. So let’s unpack the mystery and talk about the elusive rebalancing bonus.

Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios

Advanced, Featured, Theory

December is often the time of retrospection and yearly wrap-ups, with stories recapping events of the last year and looking forward to new opportunities. In the finance space, you’ll find endless collections of the top performers of the year and forecasts for the one to come. While that’s all interesting and comforting in its own ritualistic way, this holiday season I decided to revisit a bold question that’s much bigger than short-term market news cycles:

What do the most efficient portfolios in history have in common?

Truly understand that answer, and much of the market noise that worries you from day-to-day and year-to-year loses its power over not only your emotions but also your account balances. So if you’ve ever wanted to think beyond your investing assumptions and explore the data for proven ways to approach timeless portfolio problems, grab a cup of coffee and pull up a chair. This article is for you.

Metal, Money, and the Measurable Value of Gold

Advanced, Featured, Theory

Buried in an otherwise mind-numbingly boring regulatory filing released recently was a seemingly innocuous line item that most people would not give a second thought. Sometime in the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway invested a comparatively tiny 0.3% of their total portfolio into just a single new company. No big deal, right?

But it wasn’t just any company. After spending decades as perhaps the most respected and widely-cited critic of gold as an investment, Warren Buffett bought 21 million shares of Barrick Gold — one of the largest gold mining companies in the world. It was so out of character that the financial world immediately did a huge double-take. The headline from Bloomberg pretty much speaks for itself:

Berkshire Makes a Bet on Gold Market That Buffett Once Mocked

As one might expect, investors on both extremes of the gold-appreciating spectrum are furiously debating what this all means. Buffett’s closest gold-averse followers are circling the wagons and dealing with a lot of cognitive dissonance, while gold bugs are enjoying dishing out some playful jabs after years of being on the receiving end. Lost in the middle is a vast sea of normal investors watching the news and searching for actionable information.

This article is for that last group just wanting to know the truth about gold and what it can (and can’t) do for their own portfolios.

Investing With Style: How Size and Value Actually Work

Advanced, Theory

Sometimes the simplest investing concepts we take for granted are actually a lot more complicated than we think. For example, reasonable people might rationally assume that two small cap value index funds should have identical returns since they theoretically follow the same asset. But it doesn’t really work that way because definitions matter. What does “small cap” mean? Who defines “value”? Read the fine print and two similar funds may be a lot more unique than you realize.

I’ve been thinking about that subtle complexity recently, as in the process of finalizing the most recent annual Portfolio Charts data update I refined the definition of “small cap” to better match common index fund methodologies. The tweak was simple enough, but succinctly explaining what it means and why it matters got more and more difficult the longer I thought about it. The entire process made me realize it might be a good time to have a longer discussion on how stock index fund definitions work.

So if you’ve ever looked at an assortment of large, mid, small, blend, value, and growth stocks and wondered what all of that actually means, this article is for you. It’s going to get a little technical, but if you stick with it you’ll learn something not only about how indices are constructed but also how to use that info to interpret the data you find both here and elsewhere.

Factor Farming and the Value of Perspective

Advanced, Theory

An interesting recent trend I’ve noticed in portfolio discussions is a renewed debate about the resilience of factor premiums versus the good old cap-weighted stock market. It’s entirely predictable that a tough stretch for any investment has a way of bringing out both the nervous supporters on one side and the proud haters on the other. But I really can’t fault the pros for keeping an eye on performance of some of the trendier factors or the investing laypeople for wondering what everyone is even talking about.

What do I think? It’s complicated. So let’s talk about factor investing.

How To Build a Noise-Cancelling Portfolio

Chart Talk, Advanced, Theory

I’ve flown a lot over the years, and I understand first-hand how all of the little details like packing, efficiently getting through security, and getting settled on the plane become so routine for frequent travelers that they can do them without even thinking. But occasionally life throws you a curveball, just as it did on a recent flight where I was without my normal headphones. Stuck for several hours with nothing but the drone of the engines to keep me company, I can’t say I was thrilled but it turns out it was just the inspiration I needed to explain a complicated concept:

How do consistent portfolios full of volatile assets actually work?

Sure, I could go into a detailed discussion of covariance, standard deviations, and the complicated math behind efficient portfolio construction, but frankly I know I would quickly lose most people and even bore myself in the process. So inspired by the the desire for silence I normally take for granted, let’s step back and think of the problem a little differently in terms we can all relate to — noise.

How to Study Portfolios When the Data Is Full of Bubbles

Advanced, Theory

When discussing historical investing data one of the more interesting points that inevitably arises is the question of just how applicable past results are to current events and future investing decisions. Some people reject all historical data as completely irrelevant because the future will never look exactly like the past, while others hold up mathematical evidence-based investing as some sort of scientific principle that one would be foolish to question. I imagine one might expect me to fall into the latter camp, but frankly I think it’s more complicated than that. Good data speaks for itself but unless you’re speaking the same language you can easily get the message completely wrong.