Avoid the Treadmill of Planned Obsolescence

Psychology, Beginner

When digging through an old box of cables recently looking for the one I swear I kept that still connects to anything, I stumbled across something that brought back lots of memories — an old Microsoft game controller from the early 2000s. I have always loved that thing. So much so that even long after Microsoft stopped supporting it and I retired my PC for a Mac, I still could never bring myself to throw it away. Some objects carry too many good memories to part with.

Remembering an article I read recently about someone who used AI to connect an old printer, I had a moment of inspiration. Would that work here, too? A few quick prompts later, my favorite controller that is no longer in production has brand new Apple software and works like new. After years of trying to find something new to replace something special that previously worked just fine, I was finally able to bring the original back to life.

Needless to say, I have been distracted by games lately. Some joys never get old.

The whole experience also reminded me of a theme that I thought a lot about in my engineering career. Planned obsolescence is the term for the business strategy of designing something with an intentionally short life to build a product treadmill of new sales. You see it a lot in industries like mobile phones where it’s increasingly rare for one to last more than a few years. Makers of game controllers eventually stop supporting old versions to nudge you towards new purchases. And yes, I think it too often applies to investing as well.

Have you ever felt like the topic of portfolio design feels like a never-ending cycle of chasing the next new thing? A lot of that is probably by design. So let’s talk a little about how the financial industry uses planned obsolescence to maximize their own profits and what you can do to avoid it.

Language, Time, and the Beauty of Nonlinear Thinking

Psychology, Beginner, Featured

In the 2016 movie Arrival, a linguist named Louise Banks is recruited by the military to learn an alien language that even the brightest minds on earth are unable to interpret. The story mixes ominous sci-fi themes with a personal arc interwoven in cut scenes that seem incongruous at times, but that ultimately reveal something surprising about the nature of reality. Without giving away too much, Louise eventually learns that language wires our brains in a way that shapes our perception of time. And when one learns to speak and think in a new way, standard ideas we all take for granted like the linear nature of past, present, and future no longer seem so set in stone.

While it makes for a cool movie, viewers may be surprised to learn that the core concept is based on actual psychological phenomenon. The way we speak, write, and think affects how we interpret the world around us. From the implicit framing bias we subtly insert into discussions by the words we choose to the linear performance charts that flow from left to right like our natural western language, words not only have meaning. They influence the way we think.

When discussing investing and the nuances of backtesting methodologies, I have come to learn that some of the concepts are hard to explain to everyone. It’s not that it’s rocket science. I think sometimes it’s just a new language that not everyone understands, and the thought process it nurtures takes time to sink in. Like moving from a sentence written from left to right to truly understanding the timeless circular ink blots on the window, it’s more than just about knowledge. It’s about how our minds work.

So if you’re interested in getting a glimpse through the glass to a different way to perceive investing numbers, grab some popcorn and find a comfortable chair. This article is for you.

Minimize Your Miss

Psychology, Beginner

I have a good friend whose son is an accomplished golfer. Beyond the natural fatherly pride that he feels, there are also moments of awe where a wisdom borne from years of practice sneaks through in ways that you may not expect from such a young person. For example, when asked how he got so good at golf, his son replied with this (paraphrased) all-time gem:

Hole-in-ones are mostly luck, so I don’t fixate on hitting great shots. I practice minimizing my miss.

That’s not just solid advice on the golf course, but also a remarkable philosophy to live by.

It also struck home with me, as my investing philosophy is a little different than what you usually see in popular finance. Promoting trite “5 easy ways to maximize your returns” is a lot easier than explaining nuanced concepts involving uncertainty. But the idea of “minimizing your miss” is a great metaphor that brings the range of outcomes to the forefront. Wise investing isn’t about always swinging for the flag, but staying on the fairway.

The cool thing about working in visuals is that there are a few good ones that demonstrate this investing philosophy particularly well. So let’s hit the driving range and talk about the mechanics and benefits of consistent investing.

The Human Complexities of Correcting the Record

Psychology, Theory

In a recent article on his website Early Retirement Now, Karsten Jeske extended his long-running series on safe withdrawal rates with a new entry detailing his perspective on the dangers of expecting small cap value stocks to help modern portfolios. This is not the first time he has expressed doubt in the small and value premiums, but in this case he also used the Golden Butterfly in an example case to warn against using historical small cap value data to make educated retirement decisions.

I believe there is plenty of room for differing opinions in the personal investing space, and I am not normally the type to reflexively reply to every criticism. That said, the article raises several interesting points that I believe are worth discussing. On some things I agree with Karsten. On others we clearly have very different philosophies when it comes to the best use of data. And on at least one issue, I believe the article is misleading and requires a balancing explanation.

Just to be clear from the start — while we may disagree on some things, my goal is not to lob rhetorical grenades or participate in petty internet fights. I simply plan to share my own unique perspective to help you see another side to the story. No drama. Just real talk about how to interpret historical data.

So no matter whether you love small cap value stocks or think the value premium is ancient history, let’s all lay down our arms and talk about the best way to approach the numbers in front of us.

How to Succeed in the Worst Stock Markets

Beginner, Psychology, Theory

The US administration recently announced a sweeping series of tariffs on seemingly every country in the world, and the immediate market reaction was starkly negative with stocks falling double digits in just a few days and volatility shooting through the roof. Naturally, many people who track markets for a living are freaking out.

If you’re expecting me to join the growing chorus of chronically online personalities offering a long and important sounding take on tariffs and what I believe the people in charge should or shouldn’t do, that’s not really my thing. There are already enough people doing that, and to be honest I find the tone on both sides to be frustrating. It’s a complicated issue that very few individuals fully understand, which makes the arguments among newly minted trade experts a lot less informative than their confidence might imply.

And of course, the inherent political undercurrent that permeates the topic also has a way of distracting even very smart and respected people to the point of completely losing focus on what really matters. Ranting about government policies is an inherently unproductive activity that accomplishes nothing but raising your blood pressure and losing the respect of your peers.

As individual investors, we need and deserve actionable advice on how to handle tough situations that we have no control over. Reframe your mindset from one of fear and anger to one of resilience, and your entire paradigm changes. That proactive approach is more in my wheelhouse.

So to address the issue at hand, I’m going to avoid any guesses about the future of tariff policy impacts and concede right from the start that it’s possible it could be one of the worst economic decisions of all time. At that point, what matters is how you handle it.

Which brings us to an interesting question.

What are the worst stock market drawdowns in history, and which portfolios performed best in those same situations?

I’ve got the data. So let’s flip the script from reflexively pining over perfect market conditions to talking about what you can do to make money even in the worst possible financial headwinds.

The Painful Investing Lesson in Elden Ring

Beginner, Psychology

Like millions of other Elden Ring fans, I’ve been spending many hours recently killing everything in sight in the new Shadow of the Erdtree expansion. For anyone not familiar, Elden Ring is a popular videogame in the RPG genre that is a wonderful combination of beauty and lore requiring a lot of skill, strategy, and patience to master.

That skill and patience requiring thoughtful stat allocations may ring a few bells, as it shares a lot of parallels with investing. I wrote about that perspective last year when I discussed Asset Allocation for Gamers, but Elden Ring hits hard on an especially important concept that I think is underserved in many investing circles — the risk of ruin.

So if you’ve spent many frustrating evenings like me getting repeatedly wiped out by a certain flame serpent, let’s talk about avoiding the same fate in the markets.

The Rise of Financial Dopamine Culture

Psychology

Have you ever been so lost in a content feed that you feel temporarily satiated, profoundly bored, and strangely anxious all at the same time? Of course you have. No matter whether it’s your phone that you habitually check at every chance, the computer constantly streaming videos, music, and podcasts with no silent breaks, or the television screen you find yourself watching at the restaurant instead of the person in front of you, modern culture has programmed us all to crave constant input.

Bonus Points: Contemplating the Cliff

Psychology

There’s no denying that the world is in an anxious place right now. No matter whether you look outside the window to war and politics or inside your home to increasing prices and shrinking account balances, there are frightening situations all around. Everyone has a pressure point, and it’s enough to make even the most stoic person flinch and start to feel as though they’re standing on the precipice of a bad situation.

An important thing to understand, however, is that while many of the things going on around us are not pleasant they are also not particularly new. Ask your grandfather about the stressful times when he was your age, and you’ll probably gasp at what he experienced. But I bet he also enjoys the time sharing with his grandkids more than you imagine.

That’s in no way meant to diminish the seriousness of the things we’re seeing today, but simply to put the world around us in proper historical context. Life isn’t always easy, yet it goes on. And our overall happiness is largely determined not by how we coast through the good days without worry but by how we productively deal with the hard times.

That’s easier said than done, of course. And I certainly don’t have all of the answers. But to contribute towards that goal in my own small way, here’s a collection of links to articles I’ve been thinking more about lately.

Expertise Does Not Shield You From Failure

Psychology, Beginner

My news feed recently contained a trio of interesting articles that had little to do with finance but shared a theme that is quite universal — the failure of the best of us. But rather than the typical stories of deliberate fraud and tragic mistakes that are sadly all too common, these are a more nuanced grouping that taken as a whole offer an interesting perspective on something many of us take for granted.

Expertise.

So if you think you have everything figured out or have hired the smartest minds to do it for you, read on. You may learn something new about risk and adjust your expectations in the process.

Remembering Harry Markowitz

Psychology, Beginner, Theory

The world lost a true investing legend recently when Harry Markowitz passed away at the wise old age of 95. Markowitz is widely known as the father of modern portfolio theory, and it’s impossible to overstate his significance not only to my own outlook on investing but also to the entire modern industry of portfolio management. He was a good man and a brilliant thinker, and his unique insights will continue to influence us for a very long time.