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The No-Brainer Portfolio by William Bernstein

No-Brainer Portfolio

The No-Brainer Portfolio by William Bernstein is a simple and straightforward approach to asset, region, and factor diversification that accomplishes all three in just four assets.

  • Asset Allocation
  • Author
  • Overview
  • Performance
  • Comparisons
  • Alternatives
  • Articles
  • Discussion

Asset Allocation


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Home Country
currency, inflation, & funds
% Asset Class
25% United States Large Cap Blend Stocks
25% United States Small Cap Blend Stocks
25% Developed ex-US Small Cap Blend Stocks
25% United States Short Term Treasury Bonds
Other Versions

While they’re not all direct iterations of the No-Brainer Portfolio, Bernstein talks about all types of asset allocations in his writings. Here are just a few examples, and you can also model any version you like using the Charts.

Four Pillars Medium — Expanding the No-Brainer into value factors and real estate

Coward’s Portfolio — A modest proposal for a naive allocation that beats the experts

Sheltered Sam 60-40 — A unique portfolio designed for a specific investing persona

Author


William Bernstein

William Bernstein is a neurologist and financial author who writes prolifically on asset allocation. You can read his thoughts on the No-Brainer Portfolio in his book The Intelligent Asset Allocator.

Overview

The No-Brainer Portfolio, also sometimes called the Simpleton’s Portfolio, is an interesting study in asset allocation. Bernstein is a self-described “asset junkie” who enjoys discussing all types of increasingly sophisticated portfolios custom designed for unique investor needs and fine-tuned with advanced concepts like efficient frontiers. While the No-Brainer Portfolio is just the simplest introductory idea in The Intelligent Asset Allocator, I also think it uniquely expresses some of his most fundamental insights.

Bernstein tends to talk about his ideas self-deprecatingly in terms of naive but effective diversification, but the thing I find most interesting is how the No-Brainer Portfolio tackles three different types of diversification in the most efficient way possible. By adding small cap stocks, international stocks, and short term bonds to a traditional large cap stock fund, it demonstrates how easy it is to construct a well-considered asset allocation that doesn’t depend so much on the handful of large cap companies that tend to dominate stock returns. For a lot of people looking for maximum diversification with minimum effort, that really is a no-brainer.

Performance


Calculations use localized assets and data for the selected home country.

No-Brainer Portfolio
Home Country
currency, inflation, & funds
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Annual Returns
No-Brainer Portfolio

This displays the frequency and distribution of every individual inflation-adjusted annual return.

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Drawdowns
No-Brainer Portfolio

This maps the fall and eventual recovery of every inflation-adjusted loss (using year-end data).

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Equalizer
No-Brainer Portfolio

This compares the annual real returns of the portfolio to each asset and measures the volatility extremes.

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Financial Independence
No-Brainer Portfolio

This tracks the range of years needed to fully fund the portfolio’s long term withdrawal rate.

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Heat Map
No-Brainer Portfolio

This displays every real CAGR based on the year the money was invested and the years held.

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Long Term Returns
No-Brainer Portfolio

This shows the full range of real CAGRs starting in every year based on how long you stayed invested.

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Portfolio Growth
No-Brainer Portfolio

This tracks the inflation-adjusted portfolio growth of every investing start date simultaneously.

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Retirement Spending
No-Brainer Portfolio

This studies the real account values and withdrawals for every retirement year using custom withdrawal rules.

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Rolling Returns
No-Brainer Portfolio

This maps the rolling real CAGRs for a given investing timeframe starting in every year.

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Savings Rates
No-Brainer Portfolio

This shows the range of savings rates required to meet a financial goal looking at every investing timeframe.

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Start Date Sensitivity
No-Brainer Portfolio

This compares how the last 10-year return compared to the next 10-year return at any point in time.

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Target Accuracy
No-Brainer Portfolio

This shows how investor account values strayed from the smooth growth path implied by the long-term average.

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Withdrawal Rates
No-Brainer Portfolio

This charts the withdrawal rates of every retiree simultaneously assuming constant real spending levels.

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Comparisons


Calculations use localized assets and data for the selected home country.

Home Country
currency, inflation, & funds
Portfolio Matrix
No-Brainer Portfolio

This ranks and sorts every tracked portfolio based on a variety of performance metrics.

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Learn more about the metrics on the Portfolio Matrix page.

Alternatives


Portfolios with a similar structure or design intent

Permanent Portfolio — Another 4-asset approach that focuses on diversification

Ideal Index Portfolio — Similar portfolio structure showcasing value and growth tilts

Core Four Portfolio — Similar percentage of stocks with REITs instead of small caps

Articles


Insights that mention the No-Brainer Portfolio

March 15, 2025
Beautiful Constants and the Golden Ratio Portfolio
October 27, 2021
Find What You Need With Improved Portfolio Profiles
April 18, 2019
A Wise Chef Knows Her Ingredients

Discussion


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