Insights

Two Charts Are Better Than One

Updates

One of the most common user requests I have received over the years sounds pretty simple but has always been more complicated to implement than it seems — adding the ability to compare two different portfolios in the same chart.

The problem is not really in the calculations but in the interface. How do you enter multiple portfolios without an insane number of inputs? And when you have data-dense visuals like the Heat Map or Withdrawal Rates charts, how do you overlay the graphics while telling everything apart? As good as I am with spreadsheets, there is only so much you can do in Excel. And even then, it requires a bit of inspiration to make sense of the many competing requirements.

Well, I finally had that moment of inspiration. And after rolling up my coding sleeves, I’m excited to announce a great new feature to the site.

Have you ever wanted to seamlessly compare two portfolios in a certain chart to find one that best meets your needs? I know I have! Read on to learn about an awesome new way to explore portfolio options.

Continue reading →

The Human Complexities of Correcting the Record

Uncategorized, Psychology, Theory

In a recent article on his website Early Retirement Now, Karsten Jeske extended his long-running series on safe withdrawal rates with a new entry detailing his perspective on the dangers of expecting small cap value stocks to help modern portfolios. This is not the first time he has expressed doubt in the small and value premiums, but in this case he also used the Golden Butterfly in an example case to warn against using historical small cap value data to make educated retirement decisions.

I believe there is plenty of room for differing opinions in the personal investing space, and I am not normally the type to reflexively reply to every criticism. That said, the article raises several interesting points that I believe are worth discussing. On some things I agree with Karsten. On others we clearly have very different philosophies when it comes to the best use of data. And on at least one issue, I believe the article is misleading and requires a balancing explanation.

Just to be clear from the start — while we may disagree on some things, my goal is not to lob rhetorical grenades or participate in petty internet fights. I simply plan to share my own unique perspective to help you see another side to the story. No drama. Just real talk about how to interpret historical data.

So no matter whether you love small cap value stocks or think the value premium is ancient history, let’s all lay down our arms and talk about the best way to approach the numbers in front of us.

Continue reading →

The Right Assets Make the Portfolio Recipe

Updates, Beginner

Researching investments can sometimes feel like aimlessly wandering the aisles of a giant grocery store while hungry. You know you need something, but without a recipe in mind it’s easy to fall into the trap of grabbing the first easy but unhealthy thing that sounds good. In the end, there’s a decent chance you will regret your choice.

Or maybe you’re a foodie who has something in mind but reads every label and agonizes over minute ingredient lists. For educated shoppers, analysis paralysis can still be crippling as it takes forever to decide on the perfect option for everything in the cart. Does it really have to be this difficult?

The equivalent in the investing world is the absolute gauntlet of a process required to find the right fund. Open up your brokerage account or a good ETF screener, and the sheer number of fund variations are insane. Picture the market full of similar shoppers like you, and you’ll find the same assortment of people touching every apple, wondering what the words on the labels even mean, and loading up on prepackaged junk food. Same process, different store.

Solving the paradox of fund choice in investing is a tricky problem, and I have gone back and forth a few times over the years in how I approach it. But I have been playing with some new ideas lately, and I’m excited to announce a major site update that I think will make the process of building a portfolio a whole lot easier.

So if you’re ready for a break from staring at the produce, let’s talk about a better way to find the right portfolio assets.

Continue reading →

How to Succeed in the Worst Stock Markets

Beginner, Psychology, Theory

The US administration recently announced a sweeping series of tariffs on seemingly every country in the world, and the immediate market reaction was starkly negative with stocks falling double digits in just a few days and volatility shooting through the roof. Naturally, many people who track markets for a living are freaking out.

If you’re expecting me to join the growing chorus of chronically online personalities offering a long and important sounding take on tariffs and what I believe the people in charge should or shouldn’t do, that’s not really my thing. There are already enough people doing that, and to be honest I find the tone on both sides to be frustrating. It’s a complicated issue that very few individuals fully understand, which makes the arguments among newly minted trade experts a lot less informative than their confidence might imply.

And of course, the inherent political undercurrent that permeates the topic also has a way of distracting even very smart and respected people to the point of completely losing focus on what really matters. Ranting about government policies is an inherently unproductive activity that accomplishes nothing but raising your blood pressure and losing the respect of your peers.

As individual investors, we need and deserve actionable advice on how to handle tough situations that we have no control over. Reframe your mindset from one of fear and anger to one of resilience, and your entire paradigm changes. That proactive approach is more in my wheelhouse.

So to address the issue at hand, I’m going to avoid any guesses about the future of tariff policy impacts and concede right from the start that it’s possible it could be one of the worst economic decisions of all time. At that point, what matters is how you handle it.

Which brings us to an interesting question.

What are the worst stock market drawdowns in history, and which portfolios performed best in those same situations?

I’ve got the data. So let’s flip the script from reflexively pining over perfect market conditions to talking about what you can do to make money even in the worst possible financial headwinds.

Continue reading →

Making Room for a New Member Benefit

Updates

I’m the type of person who is always tinkering with new ideas. Whether its a new portfolio to test, a tool to create, or a tweak to make the site more intuitive and useful, creative new concepts never cease to capture my imagination.

But not every idea is a hit, and even when something is popular for a time that doesn’t mean that you can never let it go in favor of something better. Innovation requires change. And like cleaning out the old furniture, sometimes you have to make room for the new stuff.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the Portfolios page lately. Not only about new content I can add but also about how to keep people focused on what matters and fold everything into my larger goals. So I’ve re-tooled a few things, including scrapping a few redundant charts, improving a really good one, and adding a big new perk to support the people who make Portfolio Charts possible.

Here’s a quick rundown of the changes.

Continue reading →

Beautiful Constants and the Golden Ratio Portfolio

Portfolio Talk

The elegance of numbers is everywhere if you just know where to look. From the spiral of a seashell to the scales of a pinecone, a surprising number of natural objects exhibit a remarkable affinity for a special quantity. An irrational number approximately equal to 1.618 may seem like a strange fixation for thousands of years of mathematicians, but it appears so often that it has earned its own name — the golden ratio.

The golden ratio is everywhere. And not just in the world around us but arguably in our very essence. Long considered an example of the perfect divine proportion, it remains a mainstay for artists and designers seeking to appeal to humanity’s desire for order and beauty. You’ll find it in the composition of Da Vinci’s “The Last Supper” and maybe even the dimensions of computer monitor you’re reading this on. Math, nature, and beauty are more intertwined than you realize.

With that type of history, it seems appropriate that an insightful individual would apply the same universal concept to finance. So today I’m honored to add a new portfolio to the site.

It’s called the Golden Ratio Portfolio by Frank Vasquez. And make no mistake — the classic name serves as a reference for a decidedly modern investing philosophy.

Continue reading →

The Best Upgrades Make Life Easier

Updates

Back when I decided to update the landscaping in my yard, I joked with my wife that my main design philosophy was to make everything easier to maintain. From aiming built-in sprinklers to cover the entire yard at the turn of a faucet to curving the edging around the flower beds to make it easy to track with a lawnmower, each choice was made with an eye towards reducing future effort. The end result was a great experience not only when enjoying a lemonade in a lawn chair but also when regularly breaking a sweat.

Following that same design philosophy, I just released a handful of site updates that majorly reduced my maintenance effort while adding some new functionality that I think you’ll enjoy. Here’s the rundown.

Continue reading →

Brew the Best Version of the Three-Fund Portfolio

Portfolio Talk

A refreshing example of the importance of proportions can be found at your local pub. While beer is generally made of four primary ingredients — malt, hops, yeast, and water — the specific combination of those core ingredients has an important effect on the end result.

A bright, grassy IPA gets its distinct flavor by leaning heavily on the hops, while a smooth, dark porter relies more on roasted malts. Even with the same foundation, the end experience is very different! So before passing judgment on beer as a whole, it’s important to try a few different things to see what you like. Everyone has different preferences, but there are lots of tasty combinations to suit all types of people.

Recently I received a nice email from Taylor Larimore, the “King of the Bogleheads” and author of the Three-Fund Portfolio. Taylor politely asked me to use a slightly different baseline definition of his portfolio with 80% stocks rather than the 60% I showed before. And more importantly, he requested that I clarify that there is actually no fixed allocation in the Three-Fund Portfolio. Instead, he believes each investor should determine their allocation to the three namesake funds according to their own personal situation.

I always strive to accurately reflect the ideas of portfolio authors, so naturally I’m happy to oblige. And beyond a simple recounting of his statement and update to the Three-Fund definition, I thought this would also be a good opportunity to explore Taylor’s point about variable allocations more thoroughly.

What exactly does it mean to choose Three-Fund percentages to best meet your needs?

Like mixing the same four ingredients in different proportions can make distinct beers, rearranging the same three funds in a portfolio really can create different investing experiences. So let’s order a full flight of Three-Fund data to help you identify your favorite.

Continue reading →

Three New Gifts to Start the Year

Updates

In my house the holiday season is always a whirlwind of activity. If the family gatherings, parties, and general festive pandemonium aren’t enough, it’s even more busy in the finance space. After all, the closing of one year and opening of the next means one big thing is on the horizon.

It’s time for new portfolio data!

Because revising every tool on the site is a significant effort, I decided this year to take advantage of the regularly scheduled update to roll out not just one new year of data, but three notable site changes.

So before you settle back into old routines, check back under the tree for a few last-minute Portfolio Charts gifts — new data, new Toolkit options, and a cool new member perk.

Continue reading →

Find Your Ideal Allocation With the Portfolio Optimizer

Chart Talk, Updates

The universe is a big place. You can spend an entire lifetime staring at the skies, mapping every familiar constellation, and getting lost in the beautiful nebulas. But with enough persistence and the right tools you can still find new stars and galaxies that you never knew existed. Space is just that full of countless possibilities.

Choosing a portfolio can sometimes feel the same way. You can know all of the major celestial objects and may even have a favorite you call your own, but the millions of possible options are hard to ignore. So as you contemplate the skies at night thinking about the future you’d like to achieve as soon as possible, it’s natural to wonder what would happen if you just looked a little harder. One more asset. A slightly different percentage. If only you had the right telescope, a better solution might be out there waiting to be discovered.

I’ve spent a lot of time over the years studying portfolio options. But beyond just mapping the skies, I’ve always enjoyed putting my engineering background to good use to work on the tools as well. Today I’m excited to announce a major new upgrade to an old favorite.

I call it the Optimizer. And if you’re looking for new portfolio ideas to expand your investing horizons, you’ve come to the right place.

Continue reading →