The Long Term Returns chart shows the changing uncertainty of compound annual growth rates over time. This demonstrates how long you may need to hold a portfolio to experience the long-term returns it advertises, and provides a visual guide to the range of investment paths you might personally travel along the way.
Chart
Overview
The Long Term Returns chart shows the full range of compound returns your selected portfolio and home country produced based on how long you stayed invested. Every number is a real CAGR, the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate, so the results represent true purchasing power. For each investing timeframe from 1 to 15 years, the chart looks at every historical start year and reports not just one outcome but the entire spread.
Rather than plotting each individual result, the chart organizes them into five lines. The dark blue line shows the maximum return on record, the dark red line shows the minimum, and the gray line in the middle shows the median. The two lighter lines in between are the stretch and baseline returns that separate the most common results from the outliers. The blue shaded area at the top holds the best 15% of outcomes, the red area at the bottom holds the worst 15%, and the middle areas contain the 70% where the bulk of returns occurred. While math-savvy investors may recognize that as similar to one standard deviation, the calculations are not based on standard deviations at all and accurately filter the top and bottom 15% from each investing timeframe.
To study a specific timeframe, drag the vertical line left and right. The callouts report all five values for the number of years you select. Notice how the spread narrows as the timeframe grows, which illustrates the power of long-term investing in calming short-term noise. To see every individual outcome behind one slice of this chart, check out the Rolling Returns chart, and to browse the same data as a color-coded grid, try the Heat Map.
Featured Discussion
Calculations
Baseline Return
The 15th percentile real CAGR, a conservative measure excluding the worst outliers. It marks the border between the dark and light red areas on the chart. I personally use this number for my own financial planning, as it sets expectations low enough to be dependable without being overly pessimistic about the rare worst cases.
Median Return
The 50th percentile real CAGR, the typical historical outcome. Half of all investors received a higher return and half received a lower one, which makes it a more honest reference point than the simple average.
Stretch Return
The 85th percentile real CAGR, an optimistic measure excluding the best outliers. It marks the border between the dark and light blue areas on the chart. While the odds are against you personally earning that return, optimistic investors may find it helpful for setting a realistic upper bound on their projections.
Assumptions
- All returns are adjusted for inflation and expressed in the home country’s currency.
- Portfolios are rebalanced annually, and returns include reinvested dividends.
- Returns ignore taxes and fund fees.
- Calculations cover every year since 1970 for the selected home country.
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About the Long Term Returns Chart
The Long Term Returns chart answers "what long-term return range is realistic?" For holding periods of 1 to 15 years it plots the real (inflation-adjusted) compound annual growth rate every historical start year produced, as five bands — minimum, baseline (15th percentile), median, stretch (85th percentile) and maximum — so the spread of outcomes narrows visibly as the holding period lengthens.
These tables cover a small selection of what the chart shows, for the standard portfolios only — a few points from each curve, not the whole of it. The interactive chart above plots the full range and can analyze any allocation. Each standard portfolio also has a page of its own with its headline stats for every home country. To see a specific portfolio and home country version of this chart, link readers to this page with ?pk=PORTFOLIO&home=COUNTRY using the codes shown in parentheses (e.g. ?pk=gb&home=aus), or omit ?pk= to study a custom portfolio. More in the Guide for AI Assistants.
Long-Term Returns by Portfolio and Home Country
Baseline (15th percentile), median, and stretch (85th percentile) real returns over 5- and 15-year holding periods, for all 21 standard portfolios in all 12 home countries, 1970–2025.
Germany (deu)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.8% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.5% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.3% | 4.1% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.7% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -0.5% | 4.6% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 1.3% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 1.5% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.5% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.5% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 9.5% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.2% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.9% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.7% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 0.2% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.1% | 4.8% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.7% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -0.2% | 4.6% | 13.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -2.8% | 4.4% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 9.3% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.0% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.3% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% |
Australia (aus)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.8% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 9.0% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.0% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 1.2% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 1.5% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 0.7% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -1.5% | 4.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 8.9% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.3% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.1% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 9.2% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.0% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 9.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 8.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 2.0% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.3% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.9% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.1% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 1.3% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.6% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.1% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 8.7% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 1.6% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.4% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 1.4% | 6.2% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.4% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.6% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.2% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 9.0% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% |
Canada (can)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 2.1% | 4.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 8.1% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.5% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 2.2% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 2.5% | 4.6% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 1.7% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 9.1% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.5% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.8% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.6% | 5.6% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -0.9% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 1.8% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.7% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.5% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 1.9% | 4.4% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 2.1% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 2.6% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 1.4% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 0.7% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 2.0% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.8% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% |
France (fra)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.7% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.1% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.7% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -0.1% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 10.9% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 1.5% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.0% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.3% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.5% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 9.7% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 0.3% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.3% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 1.2% | 6.4% | 13.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.1% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.7% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.1% | 4.5% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.2% | 4.8% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 1.5% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -1.3% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -2.9% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 11.8% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.5% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.7% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% |
Italy (ita)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.4% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 9.0% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | -1.3% | 3.4% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 8.4% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -5.2% | 3.2% | 13.3% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.2% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.3% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 9.0% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -3.5% | 5.4% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 9.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.7% | 5.1% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.8% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.4% | 5.9% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 9.6% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -1.7% | 5.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 9.8% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -0.6% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.6% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 0.5% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.5% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.2% | 4.5% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.6% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 0.6% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 9.0% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | -1.0% | 5.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 10.2% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -5.9% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 0.9% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -10.8% | 2.9% | 17.0% | -1.1% | 3.9% | 9.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.1% | 5.4% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.4% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 3.1% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% |
Japan (jpn)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 0.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -1.6% | 3.4% | 9.3% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 7.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -1.1% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -1.6% | 5.1% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 8.0% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -1.1% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | -0.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 6.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | -0.6% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -1.8% | 4.9% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -0.7% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 0.9% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -1.7% | 3.8% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 7.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 0.1% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.9% | 4.1% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 7.1% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.8% | 4.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | -1.4% | 5.8% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -2.9% | 4.5% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 8.1% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -5.7% | 5.0% | 13.9% | -2.3% | 3.8% | 9.0% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | -0.8% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 0.5% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% |
Netherlands (nld)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.2% | 4.3% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.8% | 4.6% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.5% | 6.8% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 11.6% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.7% | 4.4% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.9% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -1.6% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 11.9% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.8% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 1.7% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 1.6% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -0.3% | 5.7% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 9.7% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 0.2% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 9.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.8% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -0.1% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.7% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.3% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.2% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 0.6% | 4.7% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.3% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 10.6% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -2.4% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 12.5% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -4.3% | 8.9% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 8.5% | 14.7% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 0.8% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 1.9% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% |
Spain (esp)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | -0.3% | 4.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | -1.7% | 3.4% | 10.2% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 8.8% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -3.8% | 3.1% | 14.3% | -0.2% | 4.7% | 10.6% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -0.9% | 4.4% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -4.0% | 4.2% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 10.8% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -0.5% | 4.1% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | -0.1% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 1.1% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -1.2% | 5.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 9.4% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -2.1% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 9.9% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -2.3% | 3.7% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -0.7% | 5.6% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.9% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 0.3% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 0.4% | 5.0% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -1.0% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.2% | 4.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.3% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | -3.0% | 4.6% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 10.7% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -4.4% | 3.0% | 15.3% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 11.0% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -6.5% | 2.1% | 20.9% | -1.0% | 5.2% | 12.0% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 0.2% | 4.6% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 9.1% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 1.6% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
Sweden (swe)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.4% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.7% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 0.7% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 13.3% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 1.2% | 6.3% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.0% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 0.3% | 7.0% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 1.2% | 6.0% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.1% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.3% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 10.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 2.3% | 6.6% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 11.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -0.3% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 1.7% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 2.6% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.0% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 0.6% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.5% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.8% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.7% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 2.1% | 7.2% | 15.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 12.3% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 0.7% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 14.0% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -1.2% | 7.8% | 23.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 15.9% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.8% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.5% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 3.8% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% |
Switzerland (che)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | -1.3% | 3.9% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 8.3% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.0% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.8% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 8.4% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -1.4% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 9.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -1.2% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -0.2% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 0.2% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | -0.2% | 4.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -1.9% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -0.9% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -2.7% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -1.0% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 0.7% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -1.7% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.8% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.2% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.4% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.7% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -1.6% | 5.6% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -3.2% | 7.4% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | -0.8% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 8.9% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 0.7% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% |
United Kingdom (gbr)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 0.9% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.7% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.6% | 4.2% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 9.9% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -0.8% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 0.2% | 4.9% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 10.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.4% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 1.6% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 1.7% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.8% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.7% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.1% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -2.2% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.8% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.6% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.5% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.8% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.4% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 1.3% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -0.3% | 4.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 10.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -1.3% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 11.7% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 0.4% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.3% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% |
United States (usa)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.5% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.7% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.2% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 1.4% | 5.8% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -0.5% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.7% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 3.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 9.0% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 0.2% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.9% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 2.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.7% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 1.4% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.8% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.9% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -1.3% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -3.3% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 7.8% | 11.1% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.4% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 9.0% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 3.2% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% |