The Long Term Returns chart shows the changing uncertainty of compound annual growth rates over time. This demonstrates how long you may need to hold a portfolio to experience the long-term returns it advertises, and provides a visual guide to the range of investment paths you might personally travel along the way.
Chart
Overview
The Long Term Returns chart shows the full range of inflation-adjusted CAGRs based on how long you invested. But rather than showing each individual number, it reports the range of real-life returns. The blue line shows the maximum return, the red line shows the minimum return, and the gray line shows the median return.
In addition, the shaded areas help distinguish the most common results from what might be considered outliers. The red area represents the bottom 15% of outcomes while the blue area represents the top 15% of outcomes. The middle areas shows the 70% where the bulk of returns occurred. While math-savvy investors may recognize that as similar to one standard deviation, the calculations are not based on standard deviations at all and accurately filter the top and bottom 15% from each investing timeframe.
To help study a specific investing timeframe, try dragging the vertical line left and right.
Calculations
Baseline Return
The baseline return is the 15th percentile return that marks the border between the dark and light red areas on the chart. I personally use this number for my own financial planning as a conservative return excluding the worst outliers.
Median Return
This is the return for the “typical” historical investor. Half of investors received a higher return and half received a lower return.
Stretch Return
The stretch return is the 85th percentile return that marks the border between the dark and light blue areas on the chart. While the odds are against you personally earning that return, optimistic investors may find it helpful for setting a realistic upper bound on their projections.
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About this chart, selected data, and how to link to it
About the Long Term Returns Chart
The Long Term Returns chart answers "what long-term return range is realistic?" For holding periods of 1 to 15 years it plots the real (inflation-adjusted) compound annual growth rate every historical start year produced, as five bands — minimum, baseline (15th percentile), median, stretch (85th percentile) and maximum — so the spread of outcomes narrows visibly as the holding period lengthens.
These tables cover a small selection of what the chart shows, for the standard portfolios only — a few points from each curve, not the whole of it. The interactive chart above plots the full range and can analyze any allocation. Each standard portfolio also has a page of its own with its headline stats for every home country. To see a specific portfolio and home country version of this chart, link readers to this page with ?pk=PORTFOLIO&home=COUNTRY using the codes shown in parentheses (e.g. ?pk=gb&home=aus), or omit ?pk= to study a custom portfolio. More in the Guide for AI Assistants.
Long-Term Returns by Portfolio and Home Country
Baseline (15th percentile), median, and stretch (85th percentile) real returns over 5- and 15-year holding periods, for all 21 standard portfolios in all 12 home countries, 1970–2025.
United States (usa)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.5% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 8.2% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.7% | 4.3% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.2% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 1.4% | 5.8% | 10.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.0% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -0.5% | 6.3% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 9.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.7% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.8% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 3.5% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.4% | 5.2% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 9.0% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 8.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 0.2% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.9% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 2.3% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.7% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 1.4% | 5.8% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.8% | 5.8% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.9% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -1.3% | 6.4% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -3.3% | 8.6% | 14.5% | 2.8% | 7.8% | 11.1% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.4% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 9.0% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 3.2% | 6.1% | 12.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% |
Australia (aus)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.8% | 4.8% | 10.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 9.0% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.0% | 4.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 7.7% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 1.2% | 5.9% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 1.5% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 0.7% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -1.5% | 4.8% | 11.1% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 8.9% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.3% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.1% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 9.2% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.0% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 9.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 8.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 2.0% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.3% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.9% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.1% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 1.3% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 8.6% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.1% | 5.6% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 8.7% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 1.6% | 7.1% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 9.4% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 1.4% | 6.2% | 11.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 9.4% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 2.0% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 9.6% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.2% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 9.0% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.2% |
Canada (can)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 2.1% | 4.1% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 8.1% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.5% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 7.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 2.2% | 4.7% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.1% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 2.5% | 4.6% | 9.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 1.7% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 9.1% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.5% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.0% | 4.3% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.4% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.8% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.6% | 5.6% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 9.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -0.9% | 4.3% | 9.3% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 1.8% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.7% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.5% | 5.6% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 1.9% | 4.4% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 2.1% | 4.7% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 2.6% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 9.0% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 1.4% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 0.7% | 6.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 2.0% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.8% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% |
France (fra)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.7% | 4.2% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 8.1% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.1% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 9.9% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.7% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 9.3% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -0.1% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 10.9% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 1.5% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.0% | 5.5% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.3% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.5% | 6.0% | 12.6% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 9.7% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 0.3% | 6.0% | 11.5% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.3% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 1.2% | 6.4% | 13.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 2.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.1% | 6.0% | 10.6% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.7% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.1% | 4.5% | 10.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.2% | 4.8% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 1.5% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -1.3% | 6.5% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -2.9% | 6.3% | 13.8% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 11.8% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.5% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.7% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% |
Germany (deu)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.8% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.5% | 4.4% | 8.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.9% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.3% | 4.1% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 8.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.7% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -0.5% | 4.6% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 1.3% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 1.5% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.5% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.5% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 9.5% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.2% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.1% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.9% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 9.5% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.7% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.7% | 6.2% | 10.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.5% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 0.2% | 4.0% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.1% | 4.8% | 10.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.6% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.7% | 5.1% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -0.2% | 4.6% | 13.3% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 8.9% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -2.8% | 4.4% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 9.3% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.0% | 5.0% | 11.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.2% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.3% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% |
Italy (ita)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.4% | 4.5% | 9.1% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 9.0% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | -1.3% | 3.4% | 10.7% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 8.4% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -5.2% | 3.2% | 13.3% | 1.1% | 5.0% | 9.2% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.3% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 9.0% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -3.5% | 5.4% | 14.3% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 9.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.7% | 5.1% | 10.1% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.8% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.4% | 5.9% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 9.6% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -1.7% | 5.9% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 9.8% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -0.6% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.6% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.7% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 0.5% | 3.6% | 7.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.5% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.2% | 4.5% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.6% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 0.6% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 9.0% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | -1.0% | 5.7% | 12.9% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 10.2% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -5.9% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 0.9% | 4.9% | 9.3% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -10.8% | 2.9% | 17.0% | -1.1% | 3.9% | 9.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.1% | 5.4% | 10.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 9.4% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 3.1% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% |
Japan (jpn)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 0.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -1.6% | 3.4% | 9.3% | 0.9% | 3.8% | 7.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -1.1% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -1.6% | 5.1% | 12.3% | 2.3% | 5.3% | 8.0% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -1.1% | 5.5% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | -0.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 6.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | -0.6% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 6.5% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -1.8% | 4.9% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -0.7% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 0.9% | 3.6% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -1.7% | 3.8% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 7.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 0.1% | 3.7% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.9% | 4.1% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 7.1% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.8% | 4.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | -1.4% | 5.8% | 11.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.9% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -2.9% | 4.5% | 11.9% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 8.1% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -5.7% | 5.0% | 13.9% | -2.3% | 3.8% | 9.0% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | -0.8% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 0.5% | 6.4% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 6.1% | 8.0% |
Netherlands (nld)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.2% | 4.3% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.8% | 4.6% | 10.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 8.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.5% | 6.8% | 14.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 11.6% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 0.7% | 4.4% | 11.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 8.9% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -1.6% | 7.6% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 11.9% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.8% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 8.0% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 1.7% | 5.2% | 9.7% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 1.6% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -0.3% | 5.7% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 9.7% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 0.2% | 5.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 9.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -1.8% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -0.1% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.7% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.3% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.2% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 0.6% | 4.7% | 10.2% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.3% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 10.6% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -2.4% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 12.5% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -4.3% | 8.9% | 19.2% | 3.3% | 8.5% | 14.7% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 0.8% | 5.3% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 9.2% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 1.9% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% |
Spain (esp)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | -0.3% | 4.2% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 8.2% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | -1.7% | 3.4% | 10.2% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 8.8% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -3.8% | 3.1% | 14.3% | -0.2% | 4.7% | 10.6% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -0.9% | 4.4% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 8.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -4.0% | 4.2% | 14.7% | 2.3% | 5.6% | 10.8% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -0.5% | 4.1% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | -0.1% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 1.1% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -1.2% | 5.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 9.4% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -2.1% | 4.8% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 9.9% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -2.3% | 3.7% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 7.3% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -0.7% | 5.6% | 14.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.9% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 0.3% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 1.6% | 4.1% | 6.4% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 0.4% | 5.0% | 11.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.2% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -1.0% | 4.3% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 7.9% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.2% | 4.2% | 11.8% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 8.3% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | -3.0% | 4.6% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 10.7% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -4.4% | 3.0% | 15.3% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 11.0% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -6.5% | 2.1% | 20.9% | -1.0% | 5.2% | 12.0% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 0.2% | 4.6% | 12.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 9.1% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 1.6% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% |
Sweden (swe)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 1.4% | 5.7% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 9.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.7% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 9.8% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 0.7% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 13.3% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 1.2% | 6.3% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 10.0% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 0.3% | 7.0% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 13.4% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 1.2% | 6.0% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 9.1% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 2.2% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 2.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.7% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.3% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 10.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 2.3% | 6.6% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 11.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -0.3% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 1.7% | 7.5% | 14.2% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 2.6% | 4.9% | 9.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 2.0% | 7.5% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 0.6% | 5.8% | 11.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 9.5% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 1.8% | 6.8% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.7% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 2.1% | 7.2% | 15.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 12.3% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 0.7% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 14.0% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -1.2% | 7.8% | 23.7% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 15.9% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 1.8% | 7.3% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 10.5% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 3.8% | 8.4% | 13.8% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.0% |
Switzerland (che)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | -1.3% | 3.9% | 9.0% | 2.1% | 4.7% | 8.3% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 1.0% | 3.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.8% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 8.4% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -1.4% | 4.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 9.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | -1.2% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 3.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | -0.2% | 5.2% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 7.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 0.2% | 4.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | -0.2% | 4.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | -1.9% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 6.2% | 9.0% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | -0.9% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -2.7% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 1.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | -1.0% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.3% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 0.7% | 5.5% | 9.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.3% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -1.7% | 4.3% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.8% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.2% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 0.4% | 5.7% | 10.5% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.7% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -1.6% | 5.6% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -3.2% | 7.4% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 11.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | -0.8% | 5.1% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 8.9% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 0.7% | 6.6% | 12.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% |
United Kingdom (gbr)
| Portfolio | 5Y Baseline | 5Y Median | 5Y Stretch | 15Y Baseline | 15Y Median | 15Y Stretch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 0.9% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 0.7% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | -0.6% | 4.2% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 9.9% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | -0.8% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 0.2% | 4.9% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 10.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 0.4% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 1.6% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 1.7% | 5.6% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 0.8% | 5.9% | 11.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 1.7% | 5.0% | 10.2% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 9.1% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | -2.2% | 4.8% | 9.0% | 2.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 0.8% | 6.2% | 11.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 1.6% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 1.5% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | -0.8% | 5.0% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | -0.4% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 1.3% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | -0.3% | 4.8% | 11.8% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 10.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | -1.3% | 5.4% | 13.5% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 11.7% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 0.4% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 2.3% | 7.7% | 11.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% |