Every once in a while life takes the opportunity to throw you a curveball and dump some good financial fortune in your lap. Whether it’s a bonus at work, a family inheritance, or a lucky night in Vegas, an influx of cash is generally a welcome sight. But because of the rarity of these life events, most people are usually caught a bit off guard and are unprepared for what to do next. Set aside for a moment the fantasies we all have about crazy things we might do if we won the mega lottery — what exactly is one supposed to responsibly do with a financial windfall?
You’ve probably seen me mention a few times that I’m always on the lookout for good data. Usually that means an occasional few extra years of a certain asset or perhaps a nice alternative source, and I do my best to accumulate the trickle of new information as it comes in. Well the stars must have aligned somehow as recently I was inundated with a waterfall of data from several new sources. It took a little while to figure out how to handle so much information, but today I’m happy to announce one of the largest updates ever to the site and fellow fans of good portfolio data are in for a real treat.
Yale University recently released their 2017 annual report for the Yale Endowment, and while normally this would pass without much notice they appear to have made a few waves by continuing an ongoing feud with Warren Buffett. In his 2016 investor letter, Buffett criticized how university endowments pursue market-beating returns through active management and suggested they might be better off investing in index funds instead. Of course the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway follows none of that advice himself, but he has consistently said that most investors including his own wife would be better off with a low-fee S&P500 index fund rather than paying expensive active managers so it’s certainly not out of character. In any case, Yale appears to have taken that a little personally and they dedicated an entire section in their annual report to dispute his claim and promote their own success.
To support their belief in active management, Yale provides data that proves their managers have exceeded stock market returns for the past two decades. For example, over the past 20 years they posted an average return of 12.1% versus 7.5% for the total US stock market which gives them confidence to say they “crush the returns produced by US stocks”. Ending with a flourish, they conclude that “not only has the model worked for the past two decades, it will work for decades to come.”
That’s bold. And it caused a bit of a tizzy in the financial blogosphere with several stories on the topic. So are they right?
I don’t know about you but I’m pretty excited about the warming weather. As the dark and cold fades away, I even sorta enjoy the bit of cleanup work that normally comes with spring. From trimming the shrubs that are now starting to grow like crazy to washing the winter grime off the car, spring cleaning has a way of creating a sense of newness that breathes new life into lots of old things.
And the same mindset extends to the virtual world as well — at least when you have your own website to maintain. So after picking up around the house I also just completed a few important data updates that you may not have noticed but will certainly appreciate.
Asset allocation is a obviously passion of mine, and I’m always excited when I find a new metric to tinker with. These new ideas are not only interesting in their own right, but they also allow me to go back and refine some older tools to make them even better. And it’s hard to think of a more appropriate place to start than one of my personal favorites — the Portfolio Finder.
I don’t think many people will be surprised to learn that I’m not a fan of using single averages to describe portfolio returns or over-simplified metrics like standard deviation to measure risk. Both of those numbers obscure so much information that they often lead to disappointing investing decisions and give backtesting a bad name. I personally have a much more nuanced perspective that embraces the idea of unpredictability in financial planning while keeping things in terms that make sense in the real world, although I’m well aware that uncertainty is a very difficult concept to understand and an even more difficult one to apply.
So sometimes even the simplest questions can trip me up. For example:
What expected return would you use for the Three-Fund Portfolio for your own financial planning?
With the stock market recently dropping more than 10% in a short amount of time, I’ve noticed a lot of panic in financial circles. Beyond the fairly steep short-term loss there’s also the fear that a much more painful long-term correction may finally be starting, and stock market investors are understandably on edge.
Do you worry that your life savings are about to catch fire and burn to the ground? Setting aside what is causing the drop, whether it portends a major correction, or even whether you should be all that concerned about it in the long run, I’d like to focus for a moment on your very real anxiety and what you can absolutely do about it.
I’m personally not worried in the slightest, and it’s not because I’m some sort of investing robot who never gets upset. It’s because I would not have known that there’s such a major stock correction from looking at my own account balances, as a panic-inducing drop just isn’t there. While comparing relative portfolio performances over just a few weeks is pretty pointless, in this case it’s definitely not a matter of luck but of very deliberate structural portfolio planning. When I invested my money, I took the time to build firewalls.
The new year is here, the Christmas ornaments are packed away, and we can finally get down to the business of making 2018 our best year yet. This is my own busiest time of the year, as updating every asset, calculator, and portfolio on the site with new annual data is no easy task. But while I keep calculating behind the scenes, I believe this is a good time to think big picture while things like New Year’s resolutions are top of mind.
What can you personally resolve to do in 2018 to become a happier and more productive investor?
Not sure how to answer that? Then let me offer a few simple suggestions.
It’s amazing how quickly time flies! 2017 was quite the whirlwind, and I can’t help but feel a small sense of awe as I think back to all Portfolio Charts has done over the year. From new portfolios to new tools and even new countries, I’m really excited about where the site has been and where it continues to grow.
To celebrate the holidays, I thought it would be cool to resurrect the theme from this time last year and highlight the most popular new posts of 2017 sorted by what has consistently drawn the most readers. So whether you’re new to the site and looking for a good place to start or a long-time reader who doesn’t want to miss anything important, it’s my pleasure to present the best of the best as chosen by other individual investors just like you.