Insights

Sail to a Good Life With the Richer Retirement Portfolio

Portfolio Talk, Retirement

As someone who has spent way more time than any normal person should researching the science and history of retirement math, I have always held a special place in my heart for the grandfather of safe withdrawal rates, the great Bill Bengen.

Back in the early 90’s when the state-of-the-art financial advice was to simply spend the average return of one’s portfolio in retirement, Bill had the foresight and technical know-how to test that assumption with actual data. As it turns out, the simple and seemingly reasonable advice which everyone took for granted was provably dangerous. But luckily, there was also a measurable spending amount which survived even the worst times in history.

And with that insight, the famous 4% retirement rule was born. If you have ever had an interest in retirement investing, I’m sure you’ve heard of it. Bill Bengen was that impactful.

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Lessons From the Best Portfolios in 2025

Beginner, Portfolio Talk

The new year is officially here, which means it’s an exciting time of year for investing researchers.

The new portfolio data has arrived!

All of the namesake Portfolios and Charts here at Portfolio Charts now have preliminary updated numbers through the end of 2025. Collecting data from so many government sources takes a bit of time and everything won’t be final for another month or so, but there’s enough “close-enough” data that there’s no reason to delay. Be sure to check in on the asset allocation you have been eyeing, as it was a pretty remarkable year in a lot of ways.

To ring in the new year, I always like to look back at the portfolio performance rankings over the previous year. It’s not so much to chase recent performance, but simply to see what we can learn about asset allocation in general. And there were a few notable lessons! So let’s kick off the new year with a quick discussion of what we can learn from the best portfolios in 2025.

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What to Do When It’s Time to Rebalance

Beginner

Christmas is fast approaching, which means it’s the perfect time of year to take a break from not worrying about investing at all. Between shopping for gifts, sipping warm beverages, and binge watching cozy holiday movies (yes, Die Hard counts), this is when I also set aside some time to think about the annual investing ritual of rebalancing my portfolio.

Some years that’s easy, when asset percentages haven’t moved much you can just leave things alone and move on. And others are more complicated. With crazy gold gains this year necessitating a big sale and a potentially sizable tax bill, this year definitely qualifies as the latter.

First world problems, I know. 🙂

Well, I just finished my own rebalance and have also received quite a few emails recently asking about the same topic. So while it’s fresh on my own mind and possibly yours, too, let’s talk a bit about the art and science of how to rebalance a portfolio.

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A World of Portfolio Data in Your Pocket

Updates

No major writeup this time. Just a quick announcement that has been a long time coming.

The charts now work on mobile devices!

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Unlock Your Portfolio With the Members Toolkit

Updates

As you browse the site today, you may notice a number of cosmetic changes and a moderately significant reorganization. There are two things going on, and both are part of my normal process of continuous improvement. The first is just a straightforward effort to clearly communicate the features that are free for everyone (nearly everything) and what is reserved for Portfolio Charts members. And the second is a major upgrade to the member perks that I think you’ll like a lot.

The big news is that the custom data functionality that powered the old Toolkit spreadsheet downloads has been rolled into a new online feature called the Members Toolkit. It’s way easier to use, allowing you to mix your own asset data and portfolio settings directly into the online charts instead of fussing with complicated downloads and overwhelming data collection efforts. And even better, it is a standard perk for every member with no extra purchases required.

Interested? Then grab a cup of coffee and prepare to learn how to easily expand your charting potential with any new data you can get your hands on.

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Minimize Your Miss

Psychology, Beginner

I have a good friend whose son is an accomplished golfer. Beyond the natural fatherly pride that he feels, there are also moments of awe where a wisdom borne from years of practice sneaks through in ways that you may not expect from such a young person. For example, when asked how he got so good at golf, his son replied with this (paraphrased) all-time gem:

Hole-in-ones are mostly luck, so I don’t fixate on hitting great shots. I practice minimizing my miss.

That’s not just solid advice on the golf course, but also a remarkable philosophy to live by.

It also struck home with me, as my investing philosophy is a little different than what you usually see in popular finance. Promoting trite “5 easy ways to maximize your returns” is a lot easier than explaining nuanced concepts involving uncertainty. But the idea of “minimizing your miss” is a great metaphor that brings the range of outcomes to the forefront. Wise investing isn’t about always swinging for the flag, but staying on the fairway.

The cool thing about working in visuals is that there are a few good ones that demonstrate this investing philosophy particularly well. So let’s hit the driving range and talk about the mechanics and benefits of consistent investing.

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Celebrating 10 Years of Portfolio Charts

Updates

On a hot July Thursday 10 years ago, I finally summoned the willpower to do something crazy. After spending more time than I’d like to admit tinkering with my personal spreadsheets, I realized I was sitting on something pretty interesting. So I threw together a quick WordPress page, wrestled the natural butterflies into submission, and finally pulled the trigger — I hit the Publish button for the first time.

And just like that, Portfolio Charts was born.

It’s actually pretty wild to think that it has been a full decade since that first Hello World message. The journey from the meager start with a handful of portfolios and a couple of charts to the breadth and depth of tools and data we see today is impossible to succinctly explain. It’s truly a labor of love, and it’s rewarding to see the small seed you planted and nurtured grow into a mature tree.

To celebrate the occasion, I thought it would be fun for long-time readers and educational for newcomers to enjoy a quick trip down memory lane. So let’s talk about my favorite insights over the years and the evolution of my thinking over time.

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Two Charts Are Better Than One

Updates

One of the most common user requests I have received over the years sounds pretty simple but has always been more complicated to implement than it seems — adding the ability to compare two different portfolios in the same chart.

The problem is not really in the calculations but in the interface. How do you enter multiple portfolios without an insane number of inputs? And when you have data-dense visuals like the Heat Map or Withdrawal Rates charts, how do you overlay the graphics while telling everything apart? As good as I am with spreadsheets, there is only so much you can do in Excel. And even then, it requires a bit of inspiration to make sense of the many competing requirements.

Well, I finally had that moment of inspiration. And after rolling up my coding sleeves, I’m excited to announce a great new feature to the site.

Have you ever wanted to seamlessly compare two portfolios in a certain chart to find one that best meets your needs? I know I have! Read on to learn about an awesome new way to explore portfolio options.

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The Human Complexities of Correcting the Record

Uncategorized, Psychology, Theory

In a recent article on his website Early Retirement Now, Karsten Jeske extended his long-running series on safe withdrawal rates with a new entry detailing his perspective on the dangers of expecting small cap value stocks to help modern portfolios. This is not the first time he has expressed doubt in the small and value premiums, but in this case he also used the Golden Butterfly in an example case to warn against using historical small cap value data to make educated retirement decisions.

I believe there is plenty of room for differing opinions in the personal investing space, and I am not normally the type to reflexively reply to every criticism. That said, the article raises several interesting points that I believe are worth discussing. On some things I agree with Karsten. On others we clearly have very different philosophies when it comes to the best use of data. And on at least one issue, I believe the article is misleading and requires a balancing explanation.

Just to be clear from the start — while we may disagree on some things, my goal is not to lob rhetorical grenades or participate in petty internet fights. I simply plan to share my own unique perspective to help you see another side to the story. No drama. Just real talk about how to interpret historical data.

So no matter whether you love small cap value stocks or think the value premium is ancient history, let’s all lay down our arms and talk about the best way to approach the numbers in front of us.

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The Right Assets Make the Portfolio Recipe

Updates, Beginner

Researching investments can sometimes feel like aimlessly wandering the aisles of a giant grocery store while hungry. You know you need something, but without a recipe in mind it’s easy to fall into the trap of grabbing the first easy but unhealthy thing that sounds good. In the end, there’s a decent chance you will regret your choice.

Or maybe you’re a foodie who has something in mind but reads every label and agonizes over minute ingredient lists. For educated shoppers, analysis paralysis can still be crippling as it takes forever to decide on the perfect option for everything in the cart. Does it really have to be this difficult?

The equivalent in the investing world is the absolute gauntlet of a process required to find the right fund. Open up your brokerage account or a good ETF screener, and the sheer number of fund variations are insane. Picture the market full of similar shoppers like you, and you’ll find the same assortment of people touching every apple, wondering what the words on the labels even mean, and loading up on prepackaged junk food. Same process, different store.

Solving the paradox of fund choice in investing is a tricky problem, and I have gone back and forth a few times over the years in how I approach it. But I have been playing with some new ideas lately, and I’m excited to announce a major site update that I think will make the process of building a portfolio a whole lot easier.

So if you’re ready for a break from staring at the produce, let’s talk about a better way to find the right portfolio assets.

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