The Annual Returns chart sorts the frequency and distribution of every inflation-adjusted annual return for a given asset allocation. Use this to study just how often a portfolio actually makes the average return it advertises, to visualize the volatility of a portfolio, and to prepare yourself for how frequently even the best portfolio will post an annual loss.
Chart
Overview
The Annual Returns chart is a histogram that illustrates the distribution of real-world inflation-adjusted annual returns. Think of each column as a bucket, and picture going through the historical record and sorting each annual return in the appropriate bucket. Blue columns represent gains and red columns represent losses.
While most people think about annual returns in terms of an average, it is important to understand that you almost never receive that average in any given year. By dragging the gray line left and right, you can see how often the portfolio had a real annual return more or less than a certain amount. Visualizing returns this way is helpful for understanding the natural variability of any investment decision.
Featured Walkthrough
_
Discussion
Join the conversation
Articles
Insights that reference Annual Returns
About this chart, selected data, and how to link to it
About the Annual Returns Chart
The Annual Returns chart answers "how often did this portfolio gain or lose money in a year?" It is a histogram of every calendar year's real (inflation-adjusted) return in 10-point bins, annotated with the average annual return, the standard deviation, and how often a year lost money.
These tables cover a small selection of what the chart shows, for the standard portfolios only — a few points from each curve, not the whole of it. The interactive chart above plots the full range and can analyze any allocation. Each standard portfolio also has a page of its own with its headline stats for every home country. To see a specific portfolio and home country version of this chart, link readers to this page with ?pk=PORTFOLIO&home=COUNTRY using the codes shown in parentheses (e.g. ?pk=gb&home=aus), or omit ?pk= to study a custom portfolio. More in the Guide for AI Assistants.
Annual Returns by Portfolio and Home Country
Average annual real return, standard deviation, and how often a year lost money, for all 21 standard portfolios in all 12 home countries, 1970–2025.
United States (usa)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.8% | 9.4% | 25% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 5.3% | 8.7% | 25% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.9% | 11.4% | 27% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 6.1% | 10.4% | 25% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.8% | 13.2% | 27% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.4% | 10.9% | 27% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 6.3% | 8.3% | 16% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 6.8% | 9.0% | 20% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 6.1% | 11.6% | 23% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.3% | 10.4% | 27% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.6% | 7.9% | 27% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.9% | 13.3% | 23% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 5.1% | 7.6% | 27% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.6% | 10.7% | 25% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.8% | 10.3% | 27% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.7% | 10.4% | 27% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.3% | 11.4% | 27% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.9% | 13.8% | 27% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 8.2% | 17.2% | 29% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.9% | 10.6% | 25% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.6% | 11.1% | 20% |
Australia (aus)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.2% | 10.2% | 30% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.3% | 8.8% | 21% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.0% | 13.3% | 29% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.3% | 12.1% | 25% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.1% | 14.6% | 30% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.5% | 12.7% | 29% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 4.9% | 9.7% | 29% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 5.2% | 10.1% | 32% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 5.6% | 12.2% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.0% | 11.6% | 34% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.1% | 9.6% | 23% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 5.8% | 13.8% | 29% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.6% | 8.2% | 27% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.1% | 11.5% | 25% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 4.8% | 11.8% | 27% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.1% | 11.2% | 21% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 5.9% | 12.8% | 27% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 5.9% | 15.5% | 32% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 6.5% | 20.1% | 38% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.4% | 11.1% | 25% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 6.5% | 11.2% | 25% |
Canada (can)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.7% | 8.2% | 20% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.9% | 7.0% | 21% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.7% | 10.3% | 23% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.8% | 9.5% | 21% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.7% | 11.8% | 20% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.9% | 10.1% | 21% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.5% | 8.4% | 25% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 5.8% | 8.9% | 21% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 5.9% | 10.0% | 20% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.4% | 9.3% | 23% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.6% | 7.7% | 23% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.2% | 11.3% | 23% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 5.0% | 7.4% | 21% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.5% | 9.6% | 20% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.4% | 9.2% | 23% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.7% | 8.8% | 20% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.4% | 10.4% | 21% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.6% | 12.5% | 25% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 7.4% | 16.3% | 29% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.7% | 9.0% | 20% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.1% | 9.4% | 18% |
France (fra)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.8% | 11.6% | 30% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 5.2% | 9.9% | 30% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 6.3% | 15.5% | 36% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 6.0% | 12.2% | 29% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 7.2% | 16.5% | 32% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.6% | 12.4% | 29% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 6.1% | 9.7% | 27% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 6.2% | 10.5% | 25% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 6.7% | 13.5% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.7% | 13.5% | 30% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.4% | 8.6% | 29% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 7.2% | 14.9% | 23% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.9% | 8.1% | 27% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.7% | 12.5% | 25% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.4% | 11.6% | 30% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.7% | 11.7% | 25% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.8% | 14.4% | 30% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 32% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 8.2% | 22.9% | 32% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 6.3% | 12.1% | 27% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.9% | 13.1% | 25% |
Germany (deu)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.5% | 12.1% | 30% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.9% | 8.6% | 21% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.9% | 14.9% | 29% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.7% | 12.8% | 32% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.8% | 16.2% | 27% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.3% | 12.8% | 29% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.8% | 10.5% | 29% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 6.0% | 11.3% | 27% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 6.4% | 14.0% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.4% | 13.0% | 29% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.1% | 9.1% | 29% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.9% | 15.7% | 23% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.7% | 7.7% | 25% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.5% | 13.0% | 29% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.2% | 12.4% | 32% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.5% | 12.3% | 27% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.5% | 13.8% | 23% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.8% | 17.7% | 29% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 7.7% | 23.6% | 30% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 6.0% | 12.6% | 25% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 25% |
Italy (ita)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.8% | 11.4% | 30% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.5% | 12.9% | 32% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 4.9% | 19.3% | 43% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 6.0% | 12.2% | 29% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.1% | 18.4% | 38% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.6% | 12.3% | 30% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 6.1% | 9.9% | 21% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 6.2% | 10.5% | 23% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 6.7% | 13.2% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.2% | 13.5% | 29% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.4% | 9.1% | 27% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 7.1% | 14.8% | 25% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.3% | 10.0% | 32% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.7% | 12.4% | 27% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.4% | 11.6% | 29% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.7% | 11.8% | 25% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.1% | 15.6% | 30% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 5.7% | 20.8% | 41% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 6.0% | 27.5% | 43% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 6.3% | 12.2% | 25% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.9% | 13.0% | 27% |
Japan (jpn)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.6% | 12.3% | 34% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.4% | 9.4% | 30% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.3% | 16.0% | 30% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.5% | 13.3% | 27% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.7% | 16.7% | 27% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.6% | 13.9% | 36% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.1% | 11.8% | 34% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 5.5% | 12.6% | 36% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 5.7% | 13.8% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.5% | 13.9% | 32% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 3.8% | 8.8% | 27% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.1% | 16.5% | 29% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.4% | 9.4% | 30% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.4% | 13.5% | 27% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.0% | 13.5% | 27% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.3% | 12.2% | 29% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.3% | 13.9% | 29% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.5% | 18.6% | 29% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 7.6% | 25.2% | 34% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.4% | 12.3% | 30% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.0% | 13.7% | 29% |
Netherlands (nld)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.2% | 12.3% | 32% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 5.2% | 9.0% | 25% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 6.8% | 14.0% | 27% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.4% | 12.9% | 30% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 7.5% | 16.3% | 27% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.1% | 12.8% | 34% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.6% | 10.8% | 27% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 5.7% | 11.5% | 27% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 6.2% | 14.1% | 30% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.6% | 13.7% | 34% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 3.8% | 9.3% | 27% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.7% | 15.7% | 25% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.8% | 8.2% | 23% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.2% | 13.2% | 29% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 4.9% | 12.5% | 32% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.2% | 12.4% | 29% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.8% | 14.4% | 27% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 7.8% | 17.0% | 29% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 9.5% | 21.4% | 27% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.7% | 12.8% | 30% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.4% | 13.8% | 27% |
Spain (esp)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.0% | 12.3% | 36% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 3.9% | 12.4% | 43% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.0% | 18.4% | 43% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.2% | 13.6% | 32% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.1% | 17.5% | 38% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 4.8% | 13.4% | 30% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.3% | 11.4% | 30% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 5.4% | 11.8% | 27% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 5.9% | 14.5% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 5.7% | 13.3% | 34% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 3.6% | 10.4% | 32% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.4% | 16.1% | 29% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 3.8% | 9.6% | 32% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 5.9% | 13.5% | 29% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 4.7% | 13.1% | 32% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.0% | 13.1% | 27% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 5.7% | 15.2% | 32% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.0% | 19.6% | 39% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 7.0% | 25.4% | 39% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.5% | 13.4% | 27% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.1% | 14.3% | 27% |
Sweden (swe)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 6.4% | 11.7% | 27% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 6.2% | 10.5% | 29% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 8.4% | 17.2% | 32% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 6.7% | 13.1% | 30% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 9.2% | 17.9% | 32% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 6.3% | 12.6% | 29% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 6.9% | 11.5% | 29% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 7.0% | 11.8% | 29% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 7.4% | 13.7% | 29% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 7.8% | 13.7% | 25% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 5.2% | 10.5% | 29% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 7.8% | 15.2% | 25% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 5.9% | 9.0% | 23% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 7.4% | 12.6% | 23% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 6.2% | 12.6% | 32% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 6.5% | 12.5% | 29% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 8.1% | 14.9% | 29% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 9.7% | 19.9% | 32% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 12.2% | 26.8% | 30% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 7.0% | 12.6% | 27% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 8.6% | 13.7% | 25% |
Switzerland (che)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 4.7% | 14.1% | 39% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.1% | 8.3% | 23% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.4% | 13.6% | 29% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 4.9% | 14.7% | 38% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.3% | 15.8% | 29% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 4.5% | 14.3% | 30% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.0% | 12.4% | 34% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 5.2% | 13.2% | 30% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 5.7% | 15.8% | 32% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 5.7% | 13.8% | 34% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 3.3% | 11.2% | 34% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.2% | 17.3% | 30% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 3.9% | 7.6% | 27% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 5.7% | 15.0% | 30% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 4.4% | 14.3% | 34% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 4.7% | 14.2% | 32% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 5.9% | 14.0% | 27% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.4% | 16.5% | 27% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 7.7% | 21.0% | 30% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 5.3% | 14.6% | 32% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 6.8% | 15.2% | 30% |
United Kingdom (gbr)
| Portfolio | Average | Std dev | Loss years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 5.4% | 11.2% | 30% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 4.5% | 9.7% | 32% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 5.4% | 15.0% | 32% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 5.6% | 11.9% | 27% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 6.4% | 15.2% | 27% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 5.3% | 12.2% | 29% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 5.9% | 10.5% | 29% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 6.0% | 10.8% | 25% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 6.3% | 12.6% | 27% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 6.1% | 11.9% | 27% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 4.3% | 10.5% | 30% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 6.7% | 13.9% | 27% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 4.4% | 7.3% | 25% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 6.3% | 11.7% | 29% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 5.1% | 11.7% | 29% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 5.5% | 11.7% | 27% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 6.1% | 13.3% | 25% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 6.3% | 16.6% | 32% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 7.3% | 21.4% | 34% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 6.0% | 11.9% | 25% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 7.5% | 12.2% | 21% |