The Start Date Sensitivity chart studies the past and future returns of a portfolio at various points in time to illustrate how actual returns varied from expectations. Use this to study the dependability of a portfolio over time, to find a stable asset allocation that reliably met its goals, and to serve as a reality check before trusting a tempting but potentially deceptive historic average with your life savings.
Chart
Overview
For each year on the start date sensitivity chart, the calculator looks both backwards ten years and forward ten years and reports the inflation-adjusted CAGR for both numbers. The red line tracks the backward-looking return and the blue line tracks the forward-looking return. The vertical bars track the difference in those two numbers — blue bars mean that the next ten years were better than the previous ten years, and red bars mean the opposite.
Drag the vertical gray line to sample the data for different reference years.
Studying the variety of differences in those two numbers gives you a very good idea for the stability of returns over time. The closer the two lines, the less sensitive the portfolio is to backtesting start date bias.
Featured Walkthrough
Calculations
Luckiest
The Luckiest datapoint is the best return difference between the forward-looking return and the backward-looking return.
Unluckiest
The Unluckiest datapoint is the worst return difference between the forward-looking return and the backward-looking return return. Imagine purchasing a fund based on a high previous 10-year return but personally receiving this amount less than that number per year for the next ten years after you bought it. Talk about disappointing!
Start Date Sensitivity
This is the difference between the luckiest and unluckiest datapoints. Think of it as the spread in happiness relative to expectations between all of the different investors that bought the portfolio over time. I see it as a simple quantitative way to help you compare the relative dependability of two portfolios. Smaller numbers have historically been better at meeting investor expectations than larger numbers, with less timing luck required to get the advertised return.
Discussion
Join the conversation
Articles
Insights that reference Start Date Sensitivity
About this chart, selected data, and how to link to it
About the Start Date Sensitivity Chart
The Start Date Sensitivity chart answers "how much did the start year (luck) affect outcomes?" At each reference year it compares the real compound return of the previous ten years with the next ten, shading where the following decade beat or trailed the one before, and summarises the spread between the luckiest and unluckiest timing as one number.
These tables cover a small selection of what the chart shows, for the standard portfolios only — a few points from each curve, not the whole of it. The interactive chart above plots the full range and can analyze any allocation. Each standard portfolio also has a page of its own with its headline stats for every home country. To see a specific portfolio and home country version of this chart, link readers to this page with ?pk=PORTFOLIO&home=COUNTRY using the codes shown in parentheses (e.g. ?pk=gb&home=aus), or omit ?pk= to study a custom portfolio. More in the Guide for AI Assistants.
Start Date Sensitivity by Portfolio and Home Country
How much the luck of a start date mattered: the spread between the best and worst 10-year timing, and the start years that produced each, for all 21 standard portfolios in all 12 home countries, 1970–2025.
United States (usa)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 14.4% | 1982 | 9.1% | 2006 | -5.3% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 16.4% | 1982 | 11.1% | 1999 | -5.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 26.9% | 1982 | 14.5% | 1999 | -12.4% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 17.3% | 1982 | 10.9% | 1999 | -6.3% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 24.2% | 1982 | 13.4% | 1999 | -10.8% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 17.4% | 1982 | 11.0% | 1992 | -6.4% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 9.0% | 1982 | 4.4% | 2013 | -4.6% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 10.8% | 1982 | 6.2% | 1999 | -4.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 15.3% | 1982 | 9.6% | 1999 | -5.7% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 15.6% | 1982 | 9.4% | 2006 | -6.2% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 17.9% | 1982 | 12.1% | 2013 | -5.8% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 17.1% | 1982 | 10.5% | 1999 | -6.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 7.6% | 1982 | 2.7% | 2013 | -4.9% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 12.3% | 1982 | 7.1% | 2013 | -5.2% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 18.4% | 1982 | 11.3% | 1999 | -7.0% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 17.2% | 1982 | 11.8% | 1992 | -5.4% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 19.6% | 1982 | 12.4% | 1999 | -7.2% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 28.2% | 1982 | 14.6% | 1999 | -13.6% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 36.6% | 1982 | 16.3% | 1999 | -20.3% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 16.5% | 1982 | 10.9% | 1992 | -5.7% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 13.2% | 2003 | 5.4% | 2013 | -7.8% |
Australia (aus)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 21.9% | 1983 | 13.2% | 2001 | -8.7% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 17.8% | 1983 | 11.8% | 1994 | -5.9% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 22.8% | 1983 | 16.2% | 1994 | -6.7% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 22.5% | 1983 | 14.9% | 2001 | -7.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 24.6% | 1983 | 15.3% | 2001 | -9.3% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 26.4% | 1982 | 13.6% | 2001 | -12.8% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 11.8% | 1983 | 6.6% | 1994 | -5.1% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 13.7% | 1983 | 8.4% | 1994 | -5.3% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 21.8% | 1980 | 12.6% | 2001 | -9.2% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 23.6% | 1983 | 11.7% | 2001 | -11.9% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 24.7% | 1983 | 16.3% | 1994 | -8.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 20.0% | 1983 | 13.4% | 1994 | -6.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 8.9% | 1983 | 4.2% | 1994 | -4.7% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 18.6% | 1983 | 11.0% | 1994 | -7.6% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 22.3% | 1983 | 15.4% | 1999 | -6.8% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 23.0% | 1983 | 14.9% | 1994 | -8.0% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 23.9% | 1983 | 14.7% | 2001 | -9.2% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 23.7% | 1983 | 16.3% | 2001 | -7.4% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 25.6% | 1983 | 17.3% | 2008 | -8.3% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 21.8% | 1983 | 14.0% | 1994 | -7.8% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 13.1% | 1982 | 5.7% | 1987 | -7.4% |
Canada (can)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 15.4% | 1983 | 7.9% | 2001 | -7.5% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 10.7% | 1982 | 6.1% | 2013 | -4.6% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 13.8% | 1983 | 7.4% | 2001 | -6.4% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 15.7% | 1982 | 8.3% | 2001 | -7.4% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 17.6% | 1983 | 8.1% | 2001 | -9.5% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 19.1% | 1983 | 9.4% | 1999 | -9.8% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 11.0% | 1991 | 5.5% | 1981 | -5.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 11.2% | 1991 | 6.1% | 1981 | -5.2% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 16.4% | 1983 | 7.2% | 2001 | -9.2% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 16.7% | 1983 | 6.8% | 2001 | -10.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 16.8% | 1982 | 11.7% | 2013 | -5.1% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 12.8% | 1983 | 6.5% | 2001 | -6.3% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 10.2% | 1991 | 4.2% | 1981 | -6.0% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 11.9% | 1991 | 6.3% | 2001 | -5.6% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 15.4% | 1982 | 8.3% | 2001 | -7.1% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 15.4% | 1983 | 9.1% | 2001 | -6.4% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 16.9% | 1983 | 8.7% | 2001 | -8.2% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 16.7% | 1991 | 8.0% | 2001 | -8.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 19.1% | 1991 | 10.7% | 2001 | -8.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 15.4% | 1983 | 8.7% | 2001 | -6.7% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 11.2% | 1991 | 5.8% | 1981 | -5.4% |
France (fra)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 19.0% | 1980 | 10.4% | 2001 | -8.7% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 19.2% | 1983 | 11.8% | 2001 | -7.4% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 30.2% | 1983 | 17.7% | 2001 | -12.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 21.3% | 1980 | 12.8% | 2001 | -8.5% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 30.3% | 1980 | 15.9% | 2001 | -14.4% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 23.8% | 1980 | 14.4% | 2001 | -9.4% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 10.1% | 1980 | 5.7% | 2013 | -4.4% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 10.8% | 1982 | 6.7% | 2001 | -4.1% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 27.3% | 1980 | 15.3% | 2000 | -12.1% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 23.8% | 1980 | 11.6% | 2001 | -12.2% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 15.6% | 1982 | 10.1% | 2015 | -5.4% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 24.2% | 1980 | 14.8% | 2001 | -9.5% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 7.5% | 1982 | 3.8% | 2013 | -3.7% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 16.9% | 1980 | 9.7% | 2001 | -7.2% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 20.8% | 1980 | 12.4% | 2000 | -8.4% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 21.4% | 1980 | 12.5% | 2001 | -8.9% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 25.5% | 1980 | 14.2% | 2001 | -11.3% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 32.3% | 1983 | 17.1% | 2001 | -15.2% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 38.7% | 1983 | 19.8% | 2001 | -18.9% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 21.4% | 1980 | 12.6% | 2001 | -8.8% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 16.7% | 1996 | 7.4% | 1985 | -9.3% |
Germany (deu)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 18.8% | 1980 | 11.0% | 2001 | -7.9% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 11.1% | 1980 | 4.5% | 2013 | -6.6% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 19.7% | 1980 | 11.2% | 2000 | -8.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 21.0% | 1980 | 13.4% | 2001 | -7.7% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 26.1% | 1980 | 15.1% | 2001 | -11.0% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 23.6% | 1980 | 15.0% | 2001 | -8.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 11.9% | 1980 | 6.3% | 1987 | -5.6% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 11.7% | 1980 | 7.2% | 1987 | -4.5% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 27.2% | 1980 | 15.8% | 2000 | -11.4% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 21.1% | 1980 | 10.9% | 2001 | -10.1% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 15.2% | 1982 | 9.2% | 2015 | -6.0% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 24.0% | 1980 | 15.3% | 2001 | -8.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 10.2% | 1996 | 3.4% | 2013 | -6.7% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 16.7% | 1980 | 10.3% | 2001 | -6.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 20.6% | 1980 | 13.0% | 2000 | -7.7% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 21.1% | 1980 | 13.0% | 2001 | -8.1% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 21.4% | 1980 | 12.8% | 2001 | -8.6% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 26.4% | 1980 | 14.8% | 2000 | -11.6% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 30.8% | 1980 | 16.0% | 2000 | -14.8% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 21.1% | 1980 | 13.2% | 2001 | -8.0% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 19.8% | 1996 | 8.7% | 1985 | -11.0% |
Italy (ita)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 18.5% | 1988 | 8.2% | 2001 | -10.2% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 23.3% | 1984 | 13.9% | 2001 | -9.4% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 36.9% | 1980 | 23.5% | 2001 | -13.4% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 18.6% | 1983 | 8.6% | 2001 | -10.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 37.6% | 1980 | 22.2% | 2001 | -15.4% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 20.5% | 1980 | 9.6% | 2001 | -10.9% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 9.6% | 1991 | 5.2% | 2013 | -4.4% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 11.3% | 1991 | 5.7% | 2001 | -5.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 24.0% | 1980 | 10.4% | 2001 | -13.6% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 26.3% | 1980 | 12.4% | 2001 | -13.9% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 14.9% | 1984 | 9.2% | 2002 | -5.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 20.9% | 1980 | 9.9% | 2001 | -11.0% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 12.9% | 1984 | 6.8% | 1987 | -6.1% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 17.5% | 1991 | 8.8% | 2001 | -8.7% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 18.6% | 1983 | 8.9% | 2000 | -9.8% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 18.9% | 1991 | 8.5% | 2001 | -10.5% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 30.6% | 1980 | 17.7% | 2001 | -12.9% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 40.8% | 1980 | 25.0% | 2001 | -15.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 49.4% | 1980 | 30.6% | 1987 | -18.8% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 18.1% | 1983 | 7.7% | 2001 | -10.3% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 15.4% | 1991 | 8.9% | 1985 | -6.5% |
Japan (jpn)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 14.6% | 1983 | 7.9% | 1990 | -6.7% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 14.6% | 1980 | 5.7% | 1989 | -9.0% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 27.7% | 1980 | 12.4% | 1989 | -15.3% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 22.7% | 1980 | 11.8% | 1989 | -10.9% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 27.0% | 1980 | 13.8% | 1989 | -13.2% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 15.6% | 1982 | 10.7% | 1999 | -4.9% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 18.2% | 1998 | 5.2% | 1989 | -13.0% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 17.7% | 2016 | 4.9% | 1989 | -12.8% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 21.5% | 1980 | 12.1% | 1989 | -9.4% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 16.0% | 1980 | 8.5% | 2006 | -7.5% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 14.6% | 1980 | 9.9% | 1990 | -4.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 28.1% | 1980 | 13.0% | 1989 | -15.1% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 14.5% | 1998 | 4.7% | 1989 | -9.7% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 14.7% | 1980 | 7.1% | 1989 | -7.6% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 23.6% | 1980 | 11.9% | 1989 | -11.7% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 19.0% | 1980 | 11.1% | 1990 | -7.9% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 20.1% | 1980 | 11.8% | 1989 | -8.3% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 31.1% | 1980 | 14.3% | 1989 | -16.8% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 42.0% | 1980 | 16.3% | 1989 | -25.6% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 19.5% | 1980 | 11.4% | 1990 | -8.1% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 14.9% | 2000 | 5.7% | 1989 | -9.3% |
Netherlands (nld)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 20.5% | 1980 | 12.2% | 2001 | -8.3% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 14.7% | 1980 | 7.6% | 2001 | -7.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 28.6% | 1980 | 14.8% | 1999 | -13.9% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 22.7% | 1980 | 14.6% | 2001 | -8.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 33.1% | 1980 | 18.0% | 2001 | -15.1% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 25.3% | 1980 | 16.2% | 2001 | -9.0% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 13.1% | 1980 | 7.6% | 2013 | -5.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 13.0% | 1980 | 8.5% | 2013 | -4.6% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 29.0% | 1980 | 17.1% | 2000 | -11.9% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 25.1% | 1980 | 12.9% | 2001 | -12.1% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 16.9% | 1982 | 10.9% | 2015 | -6.0% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 25.7% | 1980 | 16.6% | 2000 | -9.1% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 7.1% | 2004 | 2.7% | 2013 | -4.4% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 18.4% | 1980 | 11.6% | 2001 | -6.8% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 22.4% | 1980 | 14.2% | 2000 | -8.2% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 22.8% | 1980 | 14.3% | 2001 | -8.6% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 26.8% | 1980 | 15.4% | 2001 | -11.4% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 34.5% | 1980 | 18.2% | 2001 | -16.4% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 42.6% | 1980 | 20.8% | 1999 | -21.8% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 22.8% | 1980 | 14.4% | 2001 | -8.4% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 18.2% | 1980 | 8.4% | 1985 | -9.8% |
Spain (esp)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 22.0% | 1980 | 11.3% | 2001 | -10.8% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 28.2% | 1984 | 19.0% | 2001 | -9.2% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 38.8% | 1984 | 26.7% | 2001 | -12.2% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 24.2% | 1980 | 13.6% | 2001 | -10.6% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 38.3% | 1980 | 24.0% | 2001 | -14.3% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 26.7% | 1980 | 15.3% | 2001 | -11.5% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 11.3% | 1980 | 6.7% | 1987 | -4.5% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 13.8% | 1980 | 7.6% | 2001 | -6.2% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 30.2% | 1980 | 16.1% | 2001 | -14.1% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 30.2% | 1980 | 16.5% | 2001 | -13.7% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 16.1% | 1982 | 9.7% | 2002 | -6.3% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 27.2% | 1980 | 15.6% | 2001 | -11.6% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 14.7% | 1984 | 10.8% | 2001 | -3.9% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 19.9% | 1980 | 10.6% | 2001 | -9.3% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 23.6% | 1980 | 13.2% | 2000 | -10.4% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 24.3% | 1980 | 13.3% | 2001 | -11.0% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 33.1% | 1980 | 20.6% | 2001 | -12.5% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 40.1% | 1980 | 25.9% | 2001 | -14.1% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 46.0% | 1984 | 30.6% | 2001 | -15.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 24.3% | 1980 | 13.5% | 2001 | -10.9% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 17.5% | 1991 | 8.5% | 1986 | -9.0% |
Sweden (swe)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 19.2% | 1980 | 8.8% | 2001 | -10.4% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 19.2% | 1980 | 10.2% | 2001 | -9.0% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 34.3% | 1980 | 20.6% | 2001 | -13.8% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 22.6% | 1980 | 11.3% | 2002 | -11.3% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 37.2% | 1980 | 21.3% | 2001 | -15.9% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 24.0% | 1980 | 12.9% | 2001 | -11.1% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 11.7% | 1992 | 4.7% | 1987 | -7.0% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 11.4% | 1980 | 5.0% | 2002 | -6.4% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 27.5% | 1980 | 13.7% | 2001 | -13.8% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 26.7% | 1980 | 12.8% | 2001 | -13.9% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 16.0% | 1984 | 8.2% | 2002 | -7.7% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 25.9% | 1980 | 13.2% | 2002 | -12.7% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 10.6% | 1992 | 4.7% | 2013 | -5.9% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 17.6% | 1980 | 8.2% | 2002 | -9.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 21.5% | 1980 | 10.9% | 2002 | -10.6% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 22.4% | 1980 | 10.9% | 2002 | -11.5% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 29.8% | 1980 | 16.8% | 2001 | -13.0% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 40.0% | 1980 | 23.5% | 2001 | -16.4% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 49.6% | 1980 | 29.6% | 2000 | -19.9% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 22.6% | 1980 | 11.1% | 2002 | -11.6% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 16.7% | 1992 | 8.0% | 1987 | -8.7% |
Switzerland (che)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 22.8% | 1980 | 12.7% | 2006 | -10.1% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 13.8% | 1991 | 7.5% | 2001 | -6.3% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 22.0% | 1991 | 9.9% | 2001 | -12.1% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 23.8% | 1980 | 15.1% | 2001 | -8.7% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 27.0% | 1980 | 12.4% | 2001 | -14.6% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 26.3% | 1980 | 16.7% | 2001 | -9.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 14.3% | 1982 | 8.5% | 2006 | -5.7% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 17.1% | 1982 | 9.8% | 2006 | -7.3% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 29.8% | 1980 | 17.6% | 2001 | -12.2% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 22.2% | 1980 | 10.2% | 2001 | -12.0% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 19.2% | 1982 | 13.1% | 2006 | -6.1% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 26.8% | 1980 | 17.1% | 2001 | -9.7% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 11.1% | 1991 | 6.2% | 1981 | -4.8% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 19.5% | 1980 | 12.1% | 2001 | -7.4% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 23.0% | 1980 | 14.7% | 2001 | -8.3% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 23.9% | 1980 | 14.8% | 2001 | -9.1% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 21.7% | 1980 | 10.9% | 2001 | -10.9% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 26.7% | 1983 | 11.1% | 2001 | -15.6% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 34.3% | 1991 | 14.1% | 2001 | -20.2% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 23.9% | 1980 | 14.9% | 2001 | -9.0% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 19.3% | 1996 | 10.0% | 1985 | -9.2% |
United Kingdom (gbr)
| Portfolio | SDS | Luckiest Year | Luckiest Swing | Unluckiest Year | Unluckiest Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7Twelve Portfolio (7tw) | 16.6% | 1983 | 11.6% | 1993 | -4.9% |
| All Seasons Portfolio (all) | 15.3% | 1982 | 9.9% | 2013 | -5.5% |
| Classic 60-40 Portfolio (cla) | 24.6% | 1980 | 15.1% | 1999 | -9.5% |
| Coffeehouse Portfolio (cof) | 17.4% | 1982 | 13.3% | 2001 | -4.1% |
| Core Four Portfolio (c4) | 26.0% | 1980 | 16.6% | 2001 | -9.4% |
| Global Market Portfolio (gm) | 19.5% | 1980 | 13.9% | 1994 | -5.6% |
| Golden Butterfly (gb) | 14.2% | 1982 | 7.3% | 2013 | -6.8% |
| Golden Ratio Portfolio (gra) | 14.5% | 1982 | 8.6% | 2013 | -5.9% |
| Ideal Index Portfolio (iip) | 22.4% | 1980 | 14.8% | 1999 | -7.7% |
| Ivy Portfolio (ivy) | 19.5% | 1980 | 11.3% | 2001 | -8.2% |
| Larry Portfolio (lar) | 18.8% | 1984 | 12.3% | 2013 | -6.5% |
| No-Brainer Portfolio (nob) | 19.5% | 1980 | 14.2% | 1993 | -5.3% |
| Permanent Portfolio (pp) | 9.2% | 2003 | 3.0% | 2013 | -6.2% |
| Pinwheel Portfolio (pin) | 14.7% | 1983 | 9.8% | 1994 | -4.9% |
| Richer Retirement (rr) | 18.1% | 1982 | 13.5% | 1999 | -4.6% |
| Sandwich Portfolio (san) | 17.3% | 1982 | 12.7% | 1994 | -4.6% |
| Swensen Portfolio (swe) | 22.3% | 1980 | 14.8% | 2001 | -7.5% |
| Three-Fund Portfolio (3f) | 27.7% | 1980 | 17.0% | 1999 | -10.7% |
| Total Stock Market (tsm) | 32.5% | 1980 | 19.1% | 1999 | -13.4% |
| Ultimate Buy & Hold (ult) | 17.0% | 1982 | 12.3% | 1994 | -4.8% |
| Weird Portfolio (wrd) | 12.0% | 1980 | 5.9% | 1987 | -6.0% |